Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

作者：Theo Christine Megha Ryan M Zulfiqar A Alexandria Austi Vos Allen Arora Barber Bhutta Brown Carter Casey C, T. Vos, Christine Allen, M. Arora, Ryan Barber, Z. Bhutta, Alexandria Brown, A. Carter, Daniel C. Casey, F. Charlson, A. Chen, M. Coggeshall, Leslie Cornaby, L. Dandona, D. Dicker, Tina Dilegge, H. Erskine, A. Ferrari, C. Fitzmaurice, T.D. Fleming, M. Forouzanfar, N. Fullman, P. Gething, Ellen M. Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, J. Haagsma, C. Johnson, N. Kassebaum, T. Kawashima, L. Kemmer, I. Khalil, Y. Kinfu, H. Kyu, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S. Lim, A. Lopez, Rafael Lozano, L. Marczak, George A. Mensah, A. Mokdad, M. Naghavi, Grant Nguyen, E. Nsoesie, H. Olsen, D. Pigott, Christine Pinho, Zane Rankin, Nikolas Reinig, Joshua A. Salomon, Logan Sandar, Alison Smith, J. Stanaway, C. Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A. Thomas, C. Troeger, J. Wagner, Haidong Wang, V. Wanga, H. Whiteford, Leo Zoeckler, A. Abajobir, K. H. Abate, C. Abbafati, K. Abbas, F. Abd-Allah, Biju Abraham, I. Abubakar, L. Abu-Raddad, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Ilana N. Ackerman, A. Adebiyi, Z. Ademi, A. K. Adou, K. Afanvi, E. Agardh, Arnav Agarwal, A. Kiadaliri, H. Ahmadieh, O. Ajala, R. Akinyemi, N. Akseer, Z. Al-Aly, K. Alam, N. Alam, S. Aldhahri, M. Alegretti, Z. A. Alemu, Lily T Alexander, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, A. Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, R. Al-Raddadi, U. Alsharif, K. Altirkawi, N. Alvis-Guzmán, A. Amare, A. Amberbir, Heresh Amini, W. Ammar, Stephen M. Amrock, H. Andersen, G. M. Anderson, Benjamin O Anderson, C. Antonio, A. Aregay, Johan Ärnlöv, A. Artaman, H. Asayesh, R. Assadi, S. Atique, Euripide Avokpaho, A. Awasthi, B. Quintanilla, P. Azzopardi, U. Bacha, A. Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, A. Barać, S. Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, L. Barregard, L. Barrero, Arindam Basu, S. Bazargan-Hejazi, B. Bell, Michelle Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, I. Benseñor, Habib Benzian, A. Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, B. Betsu, A. Beyene, N. Bhala, Samir Bhatt, S. Biadgilign, Kelly Bienhoff, B. Bikbov, S. Biryukov, D. Bisanzio, Espen Bjertness, J. Blore, Rohan Borschmann, S. Boufous, Michael Brainin, A. Brazinova, N. Breitborde, Jonathan C. Brown, Rachelle Buchbinder, G. Buckle, Z. Butt, Bianca Calabria, Ismael Campos-Nonato, J. Campuzano, Hélène Carabin, Rosario Cárdenas, David O Carpenter, J. Carrero, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, F. Catalá-López, Jung-Chen Chang, P. Chiang, C. Chibueze, V. Chisumpa, J. Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, H. Christensen, D. Christopher, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, M. Coates, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Cyrus Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, J. Crump, S. Damtew, R. Dandona, Farah Daoud, P. Dargan, J. D. das Neves, Gail Davey, A. Davis, D. Leo, L. Degenhardt, L. Gobbo, R. Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, A. Deribew, S. Derrett, D. D. Jarlais, S. Dharmaratne, Preeti Dhillon, C. Díaz-Torné, Eric L. Ding, T. Driscoll, Leilei Duan, M. Dubey, B. B. Duncan, H. Ebrahimi, R. Ellenbogen, I. Elyazar, Matthias Endres, A. Y. Endries, S. Ermakov, B. Eshrati, Kara Estep, Talha A Farid, C. Farinha, Andre Faro, M. Farvid, F. Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, D. Felson, S. Fereshtehnejad, J. Fernandes, João Fernandes, Florian Fischer, J. Fitchett, Kyle Foreman, F. G. R. Fowkes, J. Fox, R. Franklin, Joseph Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Thomas Fürst, Neal D Futran, B. Gabbe, Parthasarathi Ganguly, F. Gankpé, T. Gebre, T. Gebrehiwot, A. Gebremedhin, J. Geleijnse, B. Gessner, K. Gibney, I. Ginawi, A. Z. Giref, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, E. Glaser, W. Godwin, H. Gómez-Dantés, P. Gona, A. Goodridge, S. Gopalani, Carolyn C. Gotay, A. Goto, Hebe Gouda, Rebecca Grainger, Felix Greaves, F. Guillemin, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, R. Gupta, V. Gupta, R. A. Gutiérrez, D. Haile, A. Hailu, G. B. Hailu, Y. Halasa, R. Hamadeh, S. Hamidi, M. Hammami, Jamie Hancock, A. Handal, G. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, H. Harb, S. Harikrishnan, J. Haro, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, R. Hay, I. Heredia-Pi, P. Heydarpour, Hans W. Hoek, M. Horino, N. Horita, H. Hosgood, D. Hoy, A. Htet, Hsiang Huang, John J Emmanuel Huang, Chantal K Huynh, Marissa Iannarone, K. Iburg, K. Innos, M. Inoue, Veena J Iyer, K. Jacobsen, N. Jahanmehr, M. Jakovljevic, Mehdi Javanbakht, A. Jayatilleke, S. Jee, P. Jeemon, Paul Jensen, Ying Jiang, T. Jibat, Aida Jimenez-Corona, Ye Jin, J. Jonas, Z. Kabir, Yogeshwar V. Kalkonde, R. Kamal, Haidong Kan, André Karch, C. Karema, Chante Karimkhani, A. Kasaeian, Anil Kaul, N. Kawakami, P. Keiyoro, A. Kemp, Andre Keren, C. Kesavachandran, Yousef S. Khader, A. Khan, E. Khan, Y. Khang, S. Khera, T. Khoja, J. Khubchandani, C. Kieling, Pauline Kim, Cho-il Kim, Daniel H. Kim, Y. Kim, N. Kissoon, L. Knibbs, A. Knudsen, Y. Kokubo, D. Kolte, Jacek A. Kopec, S. Kosen, G. Kotsakis, P. Koul, A. Koyanagi, M. Kravchenko, B. K. Defo, B. Bicer, A. Kudom, Ernst J. Kuipers, G. Kumar, Michael Kutz, G. Kwan, Aparna Lal, R. Lalloo, T. Lallukka, H. Lam, Jennifer O Lam, S. Langan, Anders O. Larsson, P. Lavados, J. Leasher, J. Leigh, R. Leung, Miriam Levi, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Juan Liang, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda K Lloyd, W. Lo, G. Logroscino, Katharine J Looker, P. Lotufo, R. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, M. Mackay, Mohammed Magdy, A. Razek, M. Mahdavi, M. Majdan, Azeem Majeed, R. Malekzadeh, W. Marcenes, David J. Margolis, J. Martínez-Raga, F. Masiye, J. Massano, S. McGarvey, John J McGrath, M. McKee, Brian J. McMahon, P. Meaney, A. Mehari, Fabiola Mejía-Rodríguez, A. Mekonnen, Y. Melaku, P. Memiah, Z. A. Memish, W. Mendoza, A. Meretoja, T. Meretoja, F. Mhimbira, Ted R. Miller, E. J. Mills, M. Mirarefin, Philip B. Mitchell, Charles N Mock, A. Mohammadi, S. Mohammed, L. Monasta, J. C. M. Hernandez, M. Montico, M. Mooney, M. Moradi-Lakeh, L. Morawska, U. Mueller, Erin C. Mullany, J. Mumford, M. Murdoch, J. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, A. Naheed, L. Naldi, V. Nangia, J. Newton, Marie Ng, F. Ngalesoni, Q. Nguyen, M. I. Nisar, P. M. N. Pete, J. M. Nolla, O. Norheim, Rosana E. Norman, B. Norrving, B. P. Nunes, F. Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Pedro R Olivares, B. Olusanya, J. Olusanya, Alberto Ortiz, M. Osman, E. Ota, Mahesh Pa, Eun-Kee Park, M. Parsaeian, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos, A. P. Caicedo, Scott B. Patten, G. Patton, David M Pereira, R. Pérez-Padilla, N. Perico, K. Pesudovs, M. Petzold, Michael Robert Phillips, F. Piel, J. Pillay, F. Pishgar, Dietrich Plass, J. Platts-Mills, S. Polinder, C. Pond, S. Popova, Richie G. Poulton, F. Pourmalek, D. Prabhakaran, N. Prasad, Mostafa Qorbani, Rynaz Rabiee, A. Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, V. Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, R. Rai, Sasa Rajsic, U. Ram, P. Rao, A. Refaat, M. Reitsma, G. Remuzzi, S. Resnikoff, A.E. Reynolds, A. L. Ribeiro, M. Blancas, H. S. Roba, D. Rojas-Rueda, L. Ronfani, G. Roshandel, G. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Rajesh Sagar, R. Sahathevan, J. Sanabria, Maria-Dolores Sanchez-Niño · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31678-6 · 被引用次数：5689 · 研究领域：Medicine

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income p...