Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：M. Naghavi, K. Ong, Amirali Aali, H. Ababneh, Y. Abate, C. Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, H. Abbastabar, S. ElHafeez, Michael Abdelmasseh, S. Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Mohammad Abdollahi, M. Abdollahifar, M. Abdoun, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, S. Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, E. Abhilash, Hassan Abidi, O. Abiodun, R. Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, M. Abolmaali, M. Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Dariush Abtahi, Samir Abu Rumeileh, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, T. Adal, A. A. Adamu, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Giovanni Addolorato, A. Adebiyi, Victor Adekanmbi, Abiola Adepoju, C. Adetunji, J. B. Adetunji, T. Adeyeoluwa, D. Adeyinka, O. Adeyomoye, B. Admass, Q. Adnani, Saryia Adra, A. Afolabi, M. Afzal, Saira Afzal, S. B. Agampodi, P. Agasthi, Manik Aggarwal, Shahin Aghamiri, Feleke Doyore Agide, A. Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, B. Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, A. M. Ahmadzade, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, H. Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, M. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, E. Akara, H. Akbarialiabad, K. Akinosoglou, Tomi F Akinyemiju, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Samuel Akyirem, H. A. Hamad, S. M. Hasan, Fares Alahdab, Samer O. Alalalmeh, T. Alalwan, Z. Al-Aly, K. Alam, Manjurul Alam, N. Alam, Rasmieh M. Al-amer, F. Alanezi, Turki M. Alanzi, Sayer I. Al-Azzam, Almaza a. Albakri, Mohammed Albashtawy, M. Albataineh, J. Alcalde-Rabanal, Khalifah A. Aldawsari, W. Aldhaleei, R. Aldridge, Haileselasie Berhane Alema, Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu, Sharifullah Alemi, Y. Alemu, A. Al-Gheethi, K. Alhabib, F. Alhalaiqa, M. K. Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Liaqat Ali, M. Ali, Rafat Ali, Shahid Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, G. Alicandro, S. M. Alif, Reyhaneh Alikhani, Y. Alimohamadi, Ahmednur Adem Aliyi, M. Aljasir, S. Aljunid, François Alla, P. Allebeck, Sabah Al-Marwani, S. Al-Maweri, Joseph Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Louay Almidani, O. Almidani, Mahmoud A. Alomari, B. Al-Omari, Jordi Alonso, J. Alqahtani, S. Alqalyoobi, A. Alqutaibi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Z. Altaany, Awais Altaf, J. Al-Tawfiq, K. Altirkawi, D. Aluh, N. Alvis-Guzmán, Hassan Alwafi, Y. Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, K. Alzoubi, Reza Amani, A. Amare, Prince M Amegbor, E. Ameyaw, T. Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Sohrab Amiri, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, D. Amugsi, G. Amusa, R. Ancuceanu, D. Anderlini, David B. Anderson, Pedro Prata Andrade, C. Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Colin Angus, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Amir Anoushiravani, Hossein Ansari, Ansariadi Ansariadi, A. Ansari-Moghaddam, C. Antony, E. Antriyandarti, Davood Anvari, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, S. L. Anwar, R. Anwer, A. Anyasodor, M. Aqeel, J. Arab, J. Arabloo, M. Arafat, A. Aravkin, D. Areda, A. Aremu, O. Aremu, Hany Ariffin, Mesay Arkew, B. Armocida, M. B. Arndt, J. Ärnlöv, M. Arooj, A. Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, R. T. Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Malke Asaad, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, A. Asgedom, Mona Asghariahmadabad, M. Asghari-Jafarabadi, M. Ashraf, Armin Aslani, T. Astell-Burt, Mohammad Athar, S. Athari, Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu, H. Atlaw, P. Atorkey, M. Atout, A. Atreya, A. Aujayeb, M. Ausloos, A. Avan, A. Awedew, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, B. Quintanilla, H. Ayatollahi, J. Ayuso-Mateos, S. M. Ayyoubzadeh, S. Azadnajafabad, Rui M S Azevedo, A. Azzam, B. DarshanB, Abraham Samuel Babu, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D. Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, S. Bagherieh, S. Bah, Saeed Bahadorikhalili, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, A. Baig, Jennifer L. Baker, A. T. Bako, R. Bakshi, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Madhan Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, K. Bansal, Franca Barbic, M. Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, S. Barker-Collo, T. Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, H. Barqawi, L. Barrero, Amadou Barrow, S. Barteit, Lingkan Barua, Z. Basharat, A. Bashiri, A. Basiru, Pritish Baskaran, Buddha Basnyat, Q. Bassat, João Diogo Basso, Ann Basting, S. Basu, Kavita Batra, B. Baune, M. Bayati, N. Bayileyegn, Thomas Beaney, Neeraj Bedi, M. Beghi, E. Behboudi, Priyamadhaba Behera, A. Behnoush, Masoud Behzadifar, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Y. Béjot, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Chalie Mulu Belete, Michelle L. Bell, M. Bello, O. Bello, Luis Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, Rose G. Bender, I. Benseñor, Azizullah Beran, Z. Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Betyna N Berice, Robert S. Bernstein, Gregory J. Bertolacci, P. J. Bettencourt, Kebede A. Beyene, D. Bhagat, A. Bhagavathula, N. Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, D. Bhandari, K. Bhangdia, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V. Bhardwaj, A. Bhargava, Sonu M M Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, G. K. Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, M. Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Z. Bhutta, B. Bikbov, Jessica Bishai, C. Bisignano, F. Bisulli, Atanu Biswas, Bijit Biswas, Saeid Bitaraf, B. D. Bitew, V. Bitra, T. Bjørge, M. Boachie, M. S. Boampong, A. Bobîrcă, V. Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, S. Bohlouli, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, A. Boloor, M. Hashemi, A. Bonny, Kaustubh Bora, B. Basara, Hamed Borhany, A. Borzutzky, S. Bouaoud, A. Boustany, Christopher Boxe, Edward J. Boyko, O. Brady, Dejana Braithwaite, L. Brant, Michael Brauer, A. Brazinova, J. Brazo-Sayavera, N. Breitborde, S. Breitner, Hermann Brenner, A. Briko, N. I. Briko, Gabrielle Britton, Julie Brown, T. Brugha, Norma B. Bulamu, L. Bulto, Danilo Buonsenso, Richard A. Burns, Reinhard Busse, Yasser K. Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Z. Butt, F. C. Santos, D. Calina, L. Cámera, L. A. Campos, Ismael Campos-Nonato, Chao Cao, Yin Cao, A. Capodici, Rosario Cárdenas, Sinclair Carr, G. Carreras, J. Carrero, A. Carugno, Cristina G Carvalheiro, F. Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, J. Castaldelli-Maia, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, G. Castelpietra, F. Catalá-López, A. Catapano, M. Cattaruzza, Christopher R. Cederroth, L. Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Muthia Cenderadewi, Kelly M. Cercy, Ester Cerin, Muge Cevik, J. Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, C. Chakraborty, P. Chakraborty, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Raymond N C Chan, R. Chandika, E. Chandrasekar, Chin-Kuo Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, Gashaw Sisay Chanie, P. Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, P. Chaturvedi, V. Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, A. Chaurasia, Angela Chen, An-Tian Chen, Catherine Chen, Haowei Chen, M. Chen, Simiao Chen, Ching-Yu Cheng, Esther T W Cheng, N. Cherbuin, Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru, Ju-Huei Chien, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Ritesh Chimoriya, Patrick R. Ching, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Abdulaal Chitheer, William C. S. Cho, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Rajiv Chowdhury, D. Christopher, I. Chukwu, Eric Chung, Erin Chung, Eunice Chung, S. Chung, M. Chutiyami, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, M. Claassens, R. Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Rebecca M. Cogen, A. Columbus, H. Comfort, J. Conde, S. Cortese, P. Cortesi, V. M. Costa, S. Costanzo, Ewerton Cousin, Rosa A A Couto, R. Cowden, K. Cramer, M. Criqui, N. Cruz-Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Garland T. Culbreth, Patricia Cullen, Matthew Cunningham, M. P. Curado, Sriharsha Dadana, O. Dadras, Siyu Dai, X. Dai, Zhaoli Dai, L. Dalli, G. Damiani, Jiregna Darega Gela, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Subasish Das, A. Dascălu, N. Dash, M. Dashti, A. Dastiridou, Gail Davey, C. Dávila-Cervantes, N. Weaver, K. Davletov · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2 · 被引用次数：1827 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alter...