Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios

作者：W. Cai, B. Ng, Guojian Wang, A. Santoso, Lixin Wu, Kai Yang · 发表于：Nature Climate Change · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · 被引用次数：208

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under four IPCC plausible emission scenarios. Sea surface temperature variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean dictates the strength of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. CMIP6 models under four IPCC emission scenarios show increased variability in the 21st century from the 20th century.