Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

作者：Spencer L Degu Kalkidan Hassen Solomon M Cristiana Nooshin James Abate Abate Abay Abbafati Abbasi Abbastabar, S. James, D. Abate, K. H. Abate, Solomon M. Abay, C. Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, J. Abdela, A. Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, R. Abdulkader, Z. Abebe, S. Abera, O. Abil, H. Abraha, L. Abu-Raddad, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Pawan Acharya, Ilana N. Ackerman, A. A. Adamu, O. Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, O. Adetokunboh, Mina G. Adib, J. C. Adsuar, K. Afanvi, M. Afarideh, A. Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Kareha M. Agesa, Rakesh Aggarwal, S. Aghayan, S. Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, H. Ahmadieh, M. Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Tomi F. Akinyemiju, N. Akseer, Ziyad Al-Aly, A. Al-Eyadhy, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, R. Al-Raddadi, Fares Alahdab, K. Alam, Tahiya Alam, Alaa Alashi, S. Alavian, K. Alene, M. Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, S. Aljunid, A. Alkerwi, François Alla, P. Allebeck, M. Alouani, K. Altirkawi, N. Alvis-Guzmán, A. Amare, L. Aminde, W. Ammar, Y. Amoako, N. Anber, C. Andrei, S. Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, C. Antonio, P. Anwari, J. Arabloo, Antonio Arauz, O. Aremu, F. Ariani, Bahroom Armoon, J. Ärnlöv, A. Arora, A. Artaman, K. Aryal, H. Asayesh, R. J. Asghar, Z. Ataro, Sachin R. Atre, M. Ausloos, L. Ávila-Burgos, Euripide Avokpaho, A. Awasthi, B. P. Ayala Quintanilla, R. Ayer, P. Azzopardi, A. Babazadeh, Hamid Badali, A. Badawi, A. G. Bali, Katherine E. Ballesteros, S. Ballew, Maciej Banach, J. Banoub, A. Banstola, A. Barać, Miguel A. Barboza, S. Barker-Collo, T. Bärnighausen, L. Barrero, B. Baune, S. Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, E. Beghi, M. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, Y. Béjot, A. Belachew, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L. Bell, A. Bello, I. Benseñor, Eduardo Bernabé, Robert S. Bernstein, M. Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, N. Bhala, S. Bhattarai, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Z. Bhutta, B. Biadgo, A. Bijani, B. Bikbov, V. Bilano, Nigus Bililign, M. B. Bin Sayeed, D. Bisanzio, B. Blacker, F. Blyth, I. Bou-Orm, S. Boufous, R. Bourne, O. Brady, Michael Brainin, L. Brant, A. Brazinova, N. Breitborde, H. Brenner, P. Briant, Andrew M. Briggs, A. Briko, Gabrielle Britton, T. Brugha, R. Buchbinder, Reinhard Busse, Z. Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Jorge Cano, Rosario Cárdenas, J. Carrero, A. Carter, Félix Carvalho, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, F. Castro, F. Catalá-López, Kelly M. Cercy, Ester Cerin, Y. Chaiah, Alex R. Chang, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, F. Charlson, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Vijay Kumar Chattu, P. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, K. Chin, Abdulaal Chitheer, J. Choi, R. Chowdhury, H. Christensen, D. Christopher, F. Cicuttini, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, R. Claro, D. Collado-Mateo, Cyrus Cooper, J. Coresh, P. Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, M. Costa, Ewerton Cousin, M. Criqui, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, M. Cross, J. Crump, A. Dadi, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, P. Dargan, A. Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, T. Dasa, Gail Davey, A. Davis, D. Davițoiu, B. de Courten, F. P. De La Hoz, D. de Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, M. Degefa, L. Degenhardt, Selina Deiparine, R. Dellavalle, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, K. Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C. Des Jarlais, Getenet Dessie, Subhojit Dey, S. Dharmaratne, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, M. Dirac, S. Djalalinia, L. Doan, K. Dokova, D. Doku, E. Dorsey, Kerrie E. Doyle, T. Driscoll, M. Dubey, E. Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, B. B. Duncan, A. Durães, H. Ebrahimi, S. Ebrahimpour, M. Echko, D. Edvardsson, Andem Effiong, Joshua R. Ehrlich, C. El Bcheraoui, M. El Sayed Zaki, Z. El-Khatib, H. Elkout, I. Elyazar, A. Enayati, A. Endries, Benjamin Er, H. Erskine, B. Eshrati, S. Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, S. Esteghamati, H. Fakhim, Vahid Fallah Omrani, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Farzaneh Farhadi, Talha A. Farid, C. Farinha, Andrea Farioli, Andre Faro, M. Farvid, F. Farzadfar, V. Feigin, N. Fentahun, S. Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, João Fernandes, A. Ferrari, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, I. Filip, Florian Fischer, C. Fitzmaurice, N. Foigt, Kyle Foreman, Jack T Fox, Tahvi D. Frank, Takeshi Fukumoto, N. Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D. Futran, S. Gall, M. Ganji, F. Gankpé, A. García-Basteiro, W. M. Gardner, A. Gebre, A. Gebremedhin, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, J. Geleijnse, R. Gènova-Maleras, Y. C. D. Geramo, P. Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, K. Ghadiri, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, Rakesh Ghosh, Aloke G. Ghoshal, Simona Giampaoli, P. S. Gill, Tiffany K. Gill, I. Ginawi, G. Giussani, E. Gnedovskaya, Ellen M. Goldberg, Srinivas Goli, H. Gómez-Dantés, P. Gona, S. Gopalani, Taren M. Gorman, A. Goulart, B. N. Goulart, A. Grada, M. Grams, Giuseppe Grosso, H. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, P. C. Gupta, Rahul Gupta, R. Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, J. Haagsma, V. Hachinski, N. Hafezi-Nejad, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Tekleberhan B Hagos, G. B. Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, R. Hamadeh, S. Hamidi, A. Handal, G. Hankey, Yuan-tao Hao, H. Harb, S. Harikrishnan, J. Haro, M. Hasan, H. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, Caitlin N. Hawley, Roderick J Hay, Simon Iain Hay, A. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, B. Heibati, D. Hendrie, A. Henok, C. Herțeliu, S. Heydarpour, D. Hibstu, H. T. Hoang, Hans W Hoek, Howard J Hoffman, M. K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, P. hoogar, H. Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, D. Hoy, M. Hsairi, A. Htet, G. Hu, John J Emmanuel Huang, Chantal K Huynh, K. Iburg, C. Ikeda, B. Ileanu, O S Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, S. Irvani, C. Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, F. Islami, K. Jacobsen, L. Jahangiry, N. Jahanmehr, S. Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Mehdi Javanbakht, A. Jayatilleke, P. Jeemon, R. Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, C. Johnson, J. Jonas, J. Jozwiak, Suresh Jungari, M. Jürisson, Z. Kabir, R. Kadel, A. Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, T. Kanchan, Manoochehr Karami, B. Karami Matin, André Karch, C. Karema, Narges Karimi, Seyed M. Karimi, A. Kasaeian, D. H. Kassa, G. Kassa, T. Kassa, N. Kassebaum, S. Katikireddi, Norito Kawakami, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Masoud Keighobadi, P. Keiyoro, L. Kemmer, Grant Rodgers Kemp, A. Kengne, Andre Keren, Yousef S. Khader, Behzad Khafaei, M. Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, I. Khalil, E. Khan, M. Khan, M. Khan, Y. Khang, M. Khazaei, A. Khoja, A. Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, A. Kiadaliri, Daniel N. Kiirithio, Cho-il Kim, Daniel H. Kim, Pauline Kim, Young-Eun Kim, Y. Kim, R. Kimokoti, Y. Kinfu, A. Kisa, K. Kissimova-Skarbek, Mika Kivimäki, A. Knudsen, Jonathan M. Kocarnik, S. Kochhar, Y. Kokubo, T. Kolola, Jacek A. Kopec, S. Kosen, Georgios A. Kotsakis, P. Koul, A. Koyanagi, M. Kravchenko, K. Krishan, Kristopher J. Krohn, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, G. Kumar, Manasi M. Kumar, H. Kyu, Deepesh P. Lad, S. Lad, A. Lafranconi, R. Lalloo, T. Lallukka, F. Lami, V. Lansingh, A. Latifi, Kathryn M. Lau, J. Lazarus, J. Leasher, J. R. Ledesma, P. Lee, J. Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Yichong Li, Y. Liao, Misgan Legesse Liben, Lee-Ling Lim, Stephen S. Lim, Shiwei Liu, R. Lodha, Katharine J Looker, A. Lopez · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7 · 被引用次数：8524 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a...