Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

作者：Haidong Tim M Austin Grant Hmwe Hmwe Emmanuela Simon I Edw Wang Wolock Carter Nguyen Kyu Gakidou Hay Mills Tr, Haidong Wang, Timothy M. Wolock, A. Carter, Grant Nguyen, H. Kyu, E. Gakidou, Simon Iain Hay, E. J. Mills, A. Trickey, W. Msemburi, M. Coates, M. Mooney, Maya S. Fraser, Amber Sligar, Joshua A. Salomon, H. J. Larson, Joseph Friedman, A. Abajobir, K. H. Abate, K. Abbas, Mohamed Magdy Abd El Razek, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdulle, S. Abera, I. Abubakar, L. Abu-Raddad, N. Abu-Rmeileh, G. Abyu, A. Adebiyi, I. Adedeji, A. Adelekan, K. Adofo, A. K. Adou, Oluremi N. Ajala, Tomi F. Akinyemiju, N. Akseer, F. Lami, Ziyad Al-Aly, K. Alam, N. Alam, D. Alasfoor, S. Aldhahri, R. Aldridge, M. Alegretti, Alicia V Aleman, Z. A. Alemu, R. Alfonso-Cristancho, Raghib Ali, A. Alkerwi, François Alla, R. Mohammad, S. Al-Raddadi, U. Alsharif, E. Álvarez, N. Alvis-Guzmán, A. Amare, A. Amberbir, A. Amegah, W. Ammar, Stephen M. Amrock, C. Antonio, P. Anwari, J. Ärnlöv, A. Artaman, H. Asayesh, R. J. Asghar, R. Assadi, S. Atique, Lydia S. Atkins, Euripide Avokpaho, A. Awasthi, B. Quintanilla, U. Bacha, A. Badawi, A. Barać, T. Barnighausen, Arindam Basu, Tigist Assefa Bayou, Y. Bayou, S. Bazargan-Hejazi, J. Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Derrick A Bennett, I. Benseñor, B. Betsu, A. Beyene, E. Bhatia, Z. Bhutta, S. Biadgilign, B. Bikbov, Sait Mentes Birlik, D. Bisanzio, Michael Brainin, A. Brazinova, N. Breitborde, Alexandria Brown, Michael Burch, Z. Butt, J. Campuzano, Rosario Cárdenas, J. Carrero, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, F. Catalá-López, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, L. Chavan, Wanqing Chen, P. Chiang, Mirriam Chibalabala, V. Chisumpa, J. Choi, D. Christopher, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Cyrus Cooper, T. Dahiru, S. Damtew, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, José das Neves, Pieter de Jager, D. de Leo, L. Degenhardt, R. Dellavalle, K. Deribe, A. Deribew, Don C. Des Jarlais, S. Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, Pratik Doshi, Kerrie E. Doyle, T. Driscoll, M. Dubey, Yousef M Elshrek, I. Elyazar, A. Endries, S. Ermakov, B. Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, I. Faghmous, C. Farinha, Andre Faro, M. Farvid, F. Farzadfar, S. Fereshtehnejad, João Fernandes, Florian Fischer, J. Fitchett, N. Foigt, N. Fullman, Thomas Fürst, F. Gankpé, T. Gebre, A. Gebremedhin, A. Gebru, J. Geleijnse, B. Gessner, P. Gething, Tsegaye Tewelde Ghiwot, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, E. Glaser, S. Goenka, A. Goodridge, S. Gopalani, A. Goto, H. Gugnani, M. D. Guimarães, Rahul Gupta, R. Gupta, V. Gupta, J. Haagsma, N. Hafezi-Nejad, Holly Hagan, G. B. Hailu, R. Hamadeh, S. Hamidi, M. Hammami, G. Hankey, Yuan-tao Hao, H. Harb, S. Harikrishnan, J. Haro, Kimani M Harun, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, M. Hedayati, I. Heredia-Pi, Hans W Hoek, M. Horino, N. Horita, H. Hosgood, D. Hoy, M. Hsairi, G. Hu, Hsiang Huang, John J Emmanuel Huang, K. Iburg, B. Idrisov, K. Innos, Veena J Iyer, K. Jacobsen, N. Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Mehdi Javanbakht, A. Jayatilleke, P. Jeemon, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, T. Jibat, J. Jonas, Z. Kabir, R. Kamal, Haidong Kan, André Karch, C. Karema, D. Karletsos, A. Kasaeian, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, J. Kayibanda, P. Keiyoro, A. Kemp, A. Kengne, C. Kesavachandran, Yousef S. Khader, I. Khalil, A. Khan, E. Khan, Y. Khang, J. Khubchandani, Y. Kim, Y. Kinfu, M. Kivipelto, Y. Kokubo, S. Kosen, P. Koul, A. Koyanagi, B. K. Defo, B. Bicer, Veena S. Kulkarni, G. Kumar, D. Lal, H. Lam, Jennifer O Lam, S. Langan, V. Lansingh, Anders O. Larsson, J. Leigh, R. Leung, Yongmei Li, Stephen S. Lim, S. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Belinda K Lloyd, G. Logroscino, P. Lotufo, R. Lunevicius, H. A. E. Razek, M. Mahdavi, P. Mahesh, M. Majdan, Azeem Majeed, C. Makhlouf, R. Malekzadeh, C. Mapoma, W. Marcenes, J. Martínez-Raga, M. Marzan, Felix Masiye, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, B. Mayosi, M. McKee, P. Meaney, M. Mehndiratta, A. Mekonnen, Y. Melaku, P. Memiah, Z. A. Memish, W. Mendoza, A. Meretoja, T. Meretoja, F. Mhimbira, Ted R. Miller, Joseph Mikesell, M. Mirarefin, K. Mohammad, Shafiu Mohammed, A. Mokdad, L. Monasta, M. Moradi-Lakeh, Rintaro Mori, U. Mueller, Brighton Murimira, G. Murthy, A. Naheed, L. Naldi, V. Nangia, Denis Nash, Haseeb Nawaz, Chakib Nejjari, F. Ngalesoni, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Q. Nguyen, M. Nisar, O. Norheim, Rosana E Norman, L. Nyakarahuka, F. Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, F. Ojelabi, B. Olusanya, J. Olusanya, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, E. Ota, Hye-Youn Park, Jae-Hyun Park, Snehal T. Patil, Scott B. Patten, Vinod K. Paul, K. Pearson, E. Peprah, David M Pereira, N. Perico, K. Pesudovs, M. Petzold, Michael Robert Phillips, J. Pillay, Dietrich Plass, S. Polinder, F. Pourmalek, David Prokop, Mostafa Qorbani, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, V. Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, R. Rai, Sasa Rajsic, U. Ram, S. Rana, P. Rao, G. Remuzzi, D. Rojas-Rueda, L. Ronfani, G. Roshandel, Ambuj Roy, G. Ruhago, M. Saeedi, Rajesh Sagar, M. M. Saleh, J. Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, R. Sarmiento-Suárez, B. Sartorius, M. Sawhney, A. Schutte, D. Schwebel, S. Seedat, S. Sepanlou, E. Serván-Mori, M. Shaikh, R. Sharma, Jun She, S. Sheikhbahaei, Jiabin Shen, Kenji Shibuya, H. Shin, I. Sigfusdottir, Naris Silpakit, D. Silva, D. Silveira, E. P. Simard, S. Sindi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Om Prakash Singh, P. Singh, V. Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, S. Soneji, R. Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, D. Soti, C. Sreeramareddy, V. Stathopoulou, N. Steel, B. Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, R. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Talongwa, M. Tavakkoli, Bineyam Taye, B. Tedla, Tesfaye Tekle, G. T. Shifa, A. M. Temesgen, A. Terkawi, F. Tesfay, G. Tessema, K. Thapa, Alan J. Thomson, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, R. Topór-Mądry, J. Towbin, Bach Xuan Tran, Z. T. Dimbuene, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, A. Tura, K. Ukwaja, C. Uneke, O. Uthman, N. Venketasubramanian, S. Vladimirov, V. Vlassov, S. Vollset, Linhong Wang, E. Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, A. Werdecker, R. Westerman, T. Wijeratne, J. D. Wilkinson, C. Wiysonge, Charles D A Wolfe, S. Won, John Q. Wong, Gelin Xu, A. Yadav, Bereket Yakob, A. Z. Yalew, Yuichiro Yano, M. Yaseri, Henock G. Yebyo, Paul Yip, N. Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, M. Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Shi-Cheng Yu, Z. Zaidi, M. Zaki, Hajo Zeeb, Hao Zhang, Yong Zhao, S. Zodpey, Leo Zoeckler, L. Zuhlke, A. Lopez, C. Murray · 发表于：The Lancet HIV · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30087-x · 被引用次数：595 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital regi...