Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

作者：J. Stanaway, A. Afshin, E. Gakidou, Stephen S. Lim, D. Abate, K. H. Abate, C. Abbafati, N. Abbasi, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, J. Abdela, A. Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, R. Abdulkader, Molla Abebe, Z. Abebe, S. Abera, O. Abil, H. Abraha, Aklilu Abrham, L. Abu-Raddad, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Pawan Acharya, A. A. Adamu, A. Adane, O. Adebayo, R. Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Z. Ademi, O. Adetokunboh, Mina G. Adib, Amha Admasie, J. Adsuar, K. Afanvi, M. Afarideh, Gina Agarwal, Anju Aggarwal, S. Aghayan, Anurag Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, H. Ahmadieh, M. Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, T. Akinyemiju, N. Akseer, Z. Al-Aly, A. Al-Eyadhy, H. Al-Mekhlafi, Fares Alahdab, K. Alam, Samiah Alam, Tahiya Alam, Alaa Alashi, S. Alavian, K. Alene, Komal Ali, S. Ali, M. Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, S. Aljunid, A. Alkerwi, François Alla, U. Alsharif, K. Altirkawi, N. Alvis-Guzmán, A. Amare, W. Ammar, N. Anber, Jason A Anderson, C. Andrei, S. Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, J. Antó, C. Antonio, P. Anwari, L. Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, J. Arabloo, O. Aremu, J. Ärnlöv, A. Artaman, K. Aryal, H. Asayesh, Z. Ataro, M. Ausloos, Euripide Avokpaho, A. Awasthi, B. A. Ayala Quintanilla, R. Ayer, T. B. Ayuk, P. Azzopardi, A. Babazadeh, H. Badali, A. Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, A. G. Bali, Kylie Ball, S. Ballew, Maciej Banach, J. Banoub, A. Barać, S. Barker-Collo, T. Bärnighausen, L. Barrero, S. Basu, B. Baune, S. Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, Y. Béjot, B. B. Bekele, Eyasu Tamru Bekru, Ezra Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Morag Bell, A. Bello, Derrick A. Bennett, I. Benseñor, G. Bergeron, A. Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, Robert S. Bernstein, M. Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, N. Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, S. Bhattarai, Z. Bhutta, B. Biadgo, Ali Bijani, B. Bikbov, V. Bilano, Nigus Bililign, M. B. Bin Sayeed, D. Bisanzio, Tuhin Biswas, T. Bjørge, B. Blacker, A. Bleyer, R. Borschmann, I. Bou-Orm, S. Boufous, R. Bourne, O. Brady, Michael Brauer, A. Brazinova, N. Breitborde, H. Brenner, A. Briko, Gabrielle Britton, T. Brugha, Rachelle Buchbinder, R. Burnett, Reinhard Busse, Z. Butt, Leah E Cahill, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ismael Campos-Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, G. Carreras, J. Carrero, F. Carvalho, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Franz Castro, F. Catalá-López, K. Causey, Kelly M. Cercy, Ester Cerin, Y. Chaiah, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, Kai-Lan Chang, F. Charlson, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Vijay Kumar Chattu, M. Chee, Ching-Yu Cheng, Adrienne Chew, P. Chiang, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, K. Chin, Abdulaal Chitheer, J. Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, H. Christensen, D. Christopher, S. Chung, F. Cicuttini, Massimo Cirillo, Aaron J. Cohen, D. Collado-Mateo, C. Cooper, Owen R. Cooper, J. Coresh, Leslie Cornaby, P. Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, M. Costa, Ewerton Cousin, M. Criqui, E. Cromwell, D. Cundiff, A. K. Daba, B. Dachew, A. Dadi, Albertino Damasceno, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, Sarah C. Darby, P. Dargan, A. Daryani, R. Das Gupta, J. D. das Neves, T. Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, D. Davițoiu, K. Davletov, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Fernando Pio de la Hoz, Diego De Leo, Jan‐Walter De Neve, L. Degenhardt, Selina Deiparine, R. Dellavalle, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, E. Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Aniruddha Deshpande, D. D. Des Jarlais, Getenet Dessie, G. deVeber, Subhojit Dey, S. Dharmaratne, M. Dhimal, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Eric L. Ding, Helen Derara Diro, S. Djalalinia, H. Do, K. Dokova, D. Doku, Kerrie E. Doyle, T. Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, E. Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, B. B. Duncan, A. Durães, Natalie Ebert, H. Ebrahimi, S. Ebrahimpour, D. Edvardsson, Andem Effiong, A. Eggen, C. El Bcheraoui, Z. El-Khatib, I. Elyazar, A. Enayati, A. Y. Endries, Benjamin Er, H. Erskine, S. Eskandarieh, A. Esteghamati, Kara Estep, H. Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Talha A Farid, C. Farinha, A. Farioli, Andre Faro, M. Farvid, M. Farzaei, B. Fatima, K. Fay, A. Fazaeli, Valery L. Feigin, A. Feigl, S. Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, João Catalão, Giannina Ferrara, A. Ferrari, Manuela L Ferreira, I. Filip, J. D. Finger, F. Fischer, N. Foigt, Kyle Foreman, T. Fukumoto, N. Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D Futran, S. Gall, S. Gallus, A. Gamkrelidze, M. Ganji, A. García-Basteiro, W. M. Gardner, A. Gebre, A. Gebremedhin, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, J. Geleijnse, Y. C. D. Geramo, P. Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Reza Ghadimi, K. Ghadiri, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, Rakesh Ghosh, A. Ghoshal, Simona Giampaoli, P. S. Gill, Tiffany K. Gill, R. F. Gillum, I. Ginawi, G. Giussani, E. Gnedovskaya, W. Godwin, Srinivas Goli, H. Gómez-Dantés, P. Gona, S. Gopalani, A. Goulart, A. Grada, Morgan E. Grams, Giuseppe Grosso, H. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, R. Gupta, Tanush Gupta, R. A. Gutiérrez, Daniela S. Gutiérrez-Torres, J. Haagsma, T. Habtewold, Vladimir Hachinski, N. Hafezi-Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, G. B. Hailu, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, R. Hamadeh, S. Hamidi, A. Handal, G. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, H. Harb, S. Harikrishnan, J. Haro, H. Hassankhani, H. Y. Hassen, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, Caitlin N. Hawley, Simon Iain Hay, A. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, B. Heibati, B. Heidari, Mohsen Heidari, D. Hendrie, A. Henok, I. Heredia-Pi, C. Herteliu, F. Heydarpour, S. Heydarpour, D. Hibstu, Tarig B. Higazi, E. Hilawe, Hans W. Hoek, Howard J Hoffman, M. K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, H. Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, D. Hoy, M. Hsairi, Thomas Hsiao, G. Hu, Howard Hu, John J Emmanuel Huang, Mamusha Hussen, Chantal K Huynh, K. Iburg, Nayu Ikeda, O S Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, S. Irvani, C. Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, F. Islami, Maria D. Jackson, K. Jacobsen, L. Jahangiry, N. Jahanmehr, S. Jain, M. Jakovljevic, S. James, S. Jassal, A. Jayatilleke, P. Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, J. Jonas, Jitendra Jonnagaddala, Z. Jorjoran Shushtari, Ankur Joshi, J. Jozwiak, M. Jürisson, Z. Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, T. Kanchan, Surya Kant, Chittaranjan Kar, Manoochehr Karami, B. Karami Matin, A. Karch, C. Karema, Narges Karimi, Seyed M. Karimi, A. Kasaeian, D. H. Kassa, G. Kassa, T. Kassa, N. Kassebaum, S. Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, N. Kawakami, Zhila Kazemi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, P. Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, A. Kengne, Andre Keren, C. Kesavachandran, Yousef S. Khader, Behzad Khafaei, M. Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, I. Khalil, Gulfaraz Khan, M. Khan, M. Khan, Y. Khang, M. Khater, Mohammad Khazaei, Habibolah Khazaie, A. Khoja, A. Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, A. Kiadaliri, Daniel N. Kiirithio, Cho-il Kim, Daniel H. Kim, Young-Eun Kim, Y. Kim, R. Kimokoti, Y. Kinfu, A. Kisa, K. Kissimova-Skarbek, Mika Kivimäki, L. Knibbs, A. Knudsen, S. Kochhar, Y. Kokubo, T. Kolola, J. Kopec, S. Kosen, P. Koul, A. Koyanagi, M. Kravchenko, K. Krishan, Kristopher J. Krohn, H. Kromhout, Barthelemy Kuate Defo · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6 · 被引用次数：2920 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (...