Assessing the health burden of climate change in Poland: temperature extremes, air pollution, acute hospital admissions, and mortality over the years 2011-2020

作者：L. Kuzma, A. Kurasz, S. Abohashem, P. Jemielita, M. Swieczkowski, M. Kowalewski, W. Wańha, K. Wita, S. Dobrzycki, R. Lorusso, S. Hageman, A. Tomaszuk-Kazberuk, G. Y. Lip · 发表于：European Journal of Preventive Cardiology · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1093/eurjpc/zwag249.291

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major public-health threat, shifting the distribution of temperature exposure. At the same time, air pollution remains a key, often co-occurring environmental hazard that may amplify temperature-related health risks. To comprehensively assess the acute health impacts of adverse climate-related temperature extremes, including both heatwaves (HW) and coldwaves (CW), and to evaluate how co-exposure to air pollution may modify these associations. A geospatial analysis was performed in the EP-PARTICLES cohort including residents of eastern Poland (N=8,077,671). Data on acute hospitalizations and all cause deaths from 2011–2020 were obtained from the National Health Fund. HW and CW events were indexed using the Excess Heat/Cold Factor at the level of 655 counties. Panel negative binomial regression models were applied to daily events in a county × day structure with air pollution as a modelling variable. The primary endpoint (MACCE) comprised CVD death, STEMI, and ischemic stroke. Results were presented as the percentage increase in admissions (%IR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We recorded 831,246 deaths, including 377,373 CV deaths. The primary MACCE endpoint comprised 573,538 events (median age 79 [68–86], 52.8% men). HW were associated with an increase in MACCE incidence on the day of exposure by +7.5%, AF 3.6%, total mortality (TM) by +7.3%, and CVD deaths by +9.5%/. CW produced a delayed and more su...