DOI: https://doi.org/10.25686/2306-2819.2021.2.38 ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЭКСПЛУАТАЦИОННЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ ТЕЛЕКОММУНИКАЦИОННЫХ СИСТЕМ

作者：А.А. Шерстнева · 发表于：Vestnik of Volga State University of Technology. Series Radio Engineering and Infocommunication Systems · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.25686/2306-2819.2021.2.38

Разработаны математические модели функционирования телекоммуникационного объекта. Параметрами моделей являются эксплуатационные показатели и показатели надёжности системы контроля и диагностики. Приведены аналитические выражения для их вычисления. На основе методов теории фильтрации и модели авторегрессионного процесса предложен вариант решения задач прогнозирования статистических данных и вероятностей отдельных событий. Introduction. Estimation of the quality of performance of telecommunication systems depends on the reliability of partial technical devices and their components. Reliability estimation is based on the calculation of operational and design reliability indicators. The performance values are calculated according to the statistical data of the monitoring and control system. To derive analytical expressions for determining the calculated indicators, there were developed mathematical models which reflect the technological process of functioning. The mathematical models are presented in the form of a diagram of states that a technical object keeps during operation. The diagram also includes states under the condition of imperfect reliability of the monitoring and diagnosing system. Its imperfect is caused by the presence of control errors of the first, the second and the third kind. The aim of the study is to identify mathematical models by solving empirical equations and forecasting the performance indicators of the reliability of a telecommunication system, as we...