Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

作者：Emily Haeuser, Sam Byrne, Jason Nguyen, Cat Raggi, Susan A. Mclaughlin, C. Bisignano, A. Harris, Amanda E Smith, Paulina A Lindstedt, Georgia Smith, Samuel James Herold, Olivia D Nesbit, Taylor S. Noyes, Noga Shalev, Latera Tesfaye Olana, M. Aalipour, Hasan Aalruz, M. Abbasifard, F. Abbaspour, H. Abbastabar, S. ElHafeez, E. Abdallah, Reda Abdel-Hameed, A. Abdelkader, S. Abdel-salam, Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa, M. Abdoun, A. Abdous, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Adam Abdullahi, Auwal Abdullahi, Toufik Abdul-Rahman, Kulmira Abdykerimova, Armita Abedi, Asrat Agalu Abejew, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga, Syed Hani Abidi, O. Abiodun, R. Kasem, R. Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, U. Abonie, A. Aborode, Nagah M. Abourashed, M. Abouzid, Dmitry Abramov, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Dariush Abtahi, Rana Kamal Abu Farha, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Hana J. Abukhadijah, Salahdein Aburuz, Anirudh B Acharya, Meshack Achore, J. M. Acuna, Ousman Adal, Lisa C. Adams, A. A. Adamu, T. A. Adebisi, David Adedia, Kamoru A. Adedokun, O. Adegbile, O. Adegboye, N. A. Adegoke, O. Adeleke, J. B. Adetunji, M. T. Adhana, R. Adhikary, U. Adiga, M. Adnan, Q. Adnani, P. Adoma, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, G. Affinito, A. Afolabi, H. Afolabi, R. Afolabi, Saira Afzal, S. B. Agampodi, D. Agarwal, Sepehr Aghajanian, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Mahsa Ahadi, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Khurshid Ahmad, Rabbiya Ahmad, Shoaib Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ayman Ahmed, H. Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, M. Ahmed, Mushood Ahmed, N. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, S. Ajakwe, D. Ajala, G. T. Akalu, Oluwasefunmi Akeju, R. Akhigbe, K. Akinosoglou, M. Akkaif, H. Akram, Ashley E Akrami, Alaa Amiry, S. Awaidy, H. A. Hamad, Mohammad Nawayseh, O. Omari, Yazan Al Thaher, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi, Yazan Al-Ajlouni, Ziyad Al-Aly, K. Alam, Mohammad Khursheed Alam, Nazmul Alam, Rasmieh M. Al-amer, Turki M. Alanzi, J. O. Alao, Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal, Mohammed ALBashtawy, M. Albataineh, A. Aldhahir, M. Aldossary, Shereen M. Aleidi, Tekletsadik Tekleslassie Alemayehu, A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alfalki, F. Algahtani, A. Algammal, Ashraf Alhumaidi, Abid Ali, Irfan Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammad Ali, Rafat Ali, Shahid Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Montaha M. al-Iede, S. M. Alif, H. Rokny, Morteza Alipour, S. Al-Jabi, Adel Al-Jumaily, A. Alkhatib, Mustafa Alkhawam, Mohammed Z Allouh, Wesam Almagharbeh, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Almazan, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, A. Almobayed, Hasan Y. Alniss, Mohammad R. Alosta, Jaber S. Alqahtani, M. Alqudimat, A. Alqutaibi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Rami H. Al-Rifai, Intima Alrimawi, S. Alrousan, Mohammed Alsabri, Z. Altaany, Ala’a B. Al-Tammemi, J. Al-Tawfiq, Malik A. Althobiani, K. Altirkawi, N. Alvis-Guzmán, N. Alvis-Zakzuk, Hassan Alwafi, M. Al-Wardat, Y. Al-Worafi, Hany M. Aly, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya, A. Alzoubi, K. Alzoubi, Md Akib Al-Zubayer, Ekiyor Joseph Amafah, A. Amin, Saeed Amini, Nafiu Aminu, Ayodeji Amobonye, D. Amugsi, F. Anagnostakis, Michael Anderson, Song Peng Ang, N. Anh, Abhishek Anil, A. Anjorin, Hossein Ansariniya, C. Antony, B. Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, J. Arabloo, J. Aranjani, A. Aravkin, D. Areda, A. Aremu, O. Aremu, Ghazal Arjmand, Jesu Arockiaraj, M. Arooj, A. Artamonov, Ashokan Arumugam, Deepavalli Arumuganainar, Nurila Aryntayeva, M. Anar, M. Asaduzzaman, S. B. Asdaq, Shewatatek Melaku Asefa, A. Ashames, Tahira Ashraf, M. Ashrafi, B. Asiamah-Asare, M. Aslam, Saeed Aslani, Y. Asri, D. Assefa, B. Assembekov, Sachin R. Atre, A. Atreya, J. A. Atta, Zeenah A Atwan, Matteo Augello, Khursheed Aurangzeb, Andargie Abate Awoke, B. Awosile, Seyyed Hamidreza Ayatizadeh, Y. Ayipo, S. Azadnajafabad, Mohd Yusmaidie Aziz, S. Aziz, Amin Azizan, A. Azzam, Abisola Esther Babatope, R. Babiker, Ashish D. Badiye, Sara Bagheri, F. Baghizadeh, Razieh Bahreini, Y. Bahurupi, A. Baig, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maher Balkis, R. Banik, Hansi Bansal, S. Barati, H. Barqawi, Z. Basharat, Shahid Bashir, A. Bashiri, Rehana Basri, Q. Bassat, Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan, S. Basu, Kavita Batra, Ravi Batra, Mahdis Bayat, N. Beeraka, B. Bekele, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, S. A. Belachew, Asnake Gashaw Belayneh, Melesse Belayneh, Michael Belingheri, U. Bello, Samiun Nazrin Bente Kamal Tune, A. Berihun, A. N. Bermudez, Robert S. Bernstein, A. Bhadoria, A. Bhagavathula, N. Bhala, D. Bhandari, Pankaj Bhardwaj, A. Bhargava, Sonu Bhaskar, P. Bhattacharjee, Krittika Bhattacharyya, A. Bhattarai, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, C. Bilgin, Saeed Biroudian, Bijit Biswas, M. S. Biswas, Monirujjaman Biswas, M. Bitew, B. Bizzozero-Peroni, F. Bobo, Trupti Bodhare, Lucimere Bohn, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, Paria Bolourinejad, A. B. Carvajal, S. Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, N. I. Briko, Danilo Buonsenso, F. Busch, Yasser K. Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Z. Butt, M. Barsbay, L. Cámera, A. Capodici, G. Carreras, A. Carugno, Félix Carvalho, J. Castaldelli-Maia, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, L. Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Muthia Cenderadewi, Muge Cevik, Chiranjib Chakraborty, S. Chakraborty, R. Chandika, V. Chattu, Galmesa Bekana Chemeda, An-Tian Chen, Hana Chen, Hao-Wei Chen, N. Chew, Patrick R. Ching, William C. S. Cho, B. Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Shivani Chopra, D. Chu, S. Chung, Sunghyun Chung, M. Chutiyami, A. Columbus, J. Conde, A. Corlăteanu, C. Cosma, N. Cruz-Martins, A. Silva, Bashir Dabo, O. Dadras, X. Dai, Emanuele D’Amico, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, L. D'Anna, S. Darcho, L. Dardas, Gary L. Darmstadt, A. Darwesh, D. Davletov, F. D. L. Hoz, S. Deekonda, A. Dehadrai, T. Dejenie, Marco Del Riccio, M. Delsoz, Huiyin Deng, E. Denova-Gutiérrez, Anteneh Assefa Desalegn, P. Devarakonda, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, A. Dhali, K. Dhama, M. Dhimal, Sameer Dhingra, B. Dhungel, Stefano Di Bella, M. Pumpo, D. Silva, D. Díaz, Xueting Ding, Thanh Chi Do, Sushil Dohare, Fariba Dorostkar, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, M. T. Dresse, John Dube, Senbagam Duraisamy, O. Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Osamudiamen Ebohon, L. Ebraheim, Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi, Rasoul Ebrahimi, Abdelaziz Ed-Dra, Ferry Efendi, Behrad Eftekhari, A. E. Sedeh, E. Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Rabie Adel El Arab, Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy, M. Zaki, M. Eladl, Aya Elalfy, Said El-Ashker, I. Elbarazi, N. Elemam, Muhammed Elhadi, M. Elnaem, M. Elshaer, Abdelgawad Salah Abdelgawad Eltahawy, T. Emeto, T. Emran, Misganu Endriyas, Setegn Eshetie, Gilbert Eshun, S. Eskandarieh, M. Eslami, Maysa Eslami, Fahima Nasrin Eva, A. Fadaka, Heidar Fadavian, A. Fagbamigbe, Ayesha Fahim, Razana Faiz, I. Fakhradiyev, Niloofar Faraji, Seyed Nooredin Faraji, M. Faramarzpour, Mohammad Fareed, Moezalislam Faris, Andre Faro, Syed Muhammad Yousaf Farooq, Emmanuel Toluwani Fasusi, Z. Fatima, Pooria Fazeli, Alireza Feizkhah, G. Fekadu, Ulrich Membe Femoe Membe, R. Fernández-Jiménez, N. Feter, C. Fiorilla, Florian Fischer, M. Fonzo, Takeshi Fukumoto, N. Fullman, M. Gadanya, D. D. Gadeka, Márió Gajdács, Balasankar Ganesan, Xiang Gao, B. Garba, Fernando Jr. Barroga Garcia, J. Garlasco, Anteneh Gashaw, Zisis Gatzioufas, R. Gautam, Feven Sahle Gebre, M. W. Gebregergis, N. S. George, U. George, Gebremariam Wulie Geremew, Genanew Kassie Getahun, Habtamu Abebe Getahun, Fekadeselassie Belege Getaneh, Gebremariam Getaneh, Kazem Ghaffari, Roya Ghafoury, Arin Ghamkhar, Shakiba Ghasemi Assl, Haniyeh Ghasrsaz, R. Ghazy, Gloria Gheno, N. Ghith, A. Ghuge, A. Gil, Alessandro Girombelli, L. Göbölös, Amit Goel, Mahaveer Golechha, Davide Golinelli, M. Goodarzian, Aman Goyal, Shi-Yang Guan, G. Guarducci, S. Guicciardi, Amit Gulati, Sasidhar Gunturu, Anish Gupta, I. Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veera Gupta, V. Gupta, R. A. Gutiérrez, R. S. Gutiérrez-Murillo, J. Guzmán-Esquivel, Annie M. Haakenstad, A. D. Habteyohannes, Dariush Haghmorad, H. Hailu, P. Halder · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01037-2 · 被引用次数：111 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, The World Health Organization (WHO) set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next five years. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by the WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualize historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: 1) we assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage, 2) we forecast coverage ...