National mortality burden attributable to the unprecedented heatwave in 2022 in China

作者：Jian-xiong Hu, Yulin Zhuo, Guan-Hao He, Jiang-Mei Liu, Yan-Fang Guo, Tian-Tian Li, Weiwei Gong, Fangfang Zeng, Hai-Lai Duan, R.-L. Meng, Chun-Liang Zhou, Yi-Ze Xiao, Min Yu, Biao Huang, Maigeng Zhou, Wen-Jun Ma, Tao Liu · 发表于：Military Medical Research · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s40779-025-00676-2 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Medicine

In 2022, China experienced an unprecedented heatwave event, raising concerns about the health impacts of heatwaves. This study aims to understand the devastating health risk of the exceptional heatwave in 2022 by comparing heatwave-related mortality burden in 2022 with that during 2000–2021. We collected daily mortality and daily maximum temperature (DMT) during 2006–2017 in 364 locations (counties/districts) of China. Heatwave was defined as an event with 2 or more consecutive days of DMT exceeding the 92.5th percentile. We employed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a meta-analysis to examine the heatwave-mortality association based on the data from 364 counties/districts, and then this association was used to assess the mortality burden attributable to heatwaves during 2000–2022 in 368 cities in China. A percentage change (%) indicator, comparing the 2022 mortality burden to the average value from 2000 to 2021, was further calculated to highlight the severity of heatwaves in 2022. In the past 2 decades, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in China significantly increased, with the cumulative excessive degree-day increasing to 31,626 in 2022 compared with the annual average value of 13,772 during 2000–2021 across China. In 2022, we observed 62,961 [95% confidence internal (CI) 54,945–70,413] heatwave-related deaths in China, which was much higher than the annual average [35,987 (95% CI 31,252–40,471)] attributable to heatwaves during 2000–2021. The vulnerabil...