Model-Dependent Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Obese Populations: Multicenter Study in Türkiye

作者：Nur Düzen Oflas, A. Oral, I. Solmaz, U. Topaloğlu, Ismail Demir, A. Dundar, A. Kırık, Ozge Kama Basci, Hacer Şen, E. Binnetoglu, N. Okuroğlu, Ahmet Aydin, Zeynep Irmak Kaya, Hamit Yıldız, A. Acet, G. Tazegül, H. Sozel, Osman Ozudogru, K. Işsever, S. Yaylacı, U. Korkmaz, Celalettin Küçük, Kâmil Konur, T. Ayaz, A. Isiklar, Eşref Araç, H. Sumbul, H. Öztürk, Ali Burak Govez, Yusuf Usame Durmus, Attila Onmez, Sibel Ocak Serin, N. Koca, N. Yalçın, Aysegul Ertinmaz, A. Güven, M. Kok, H. H. Alp, Yasin Sahinturk, Seyit Uyar · 发表于：International Journal of General Medicine · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.2147/ijgm.s602816 · 研究领域：Medicine

Background Cardiovascular risk prediction models are essential for preventive cardiology; however, most were developed in populations with limited representation of individuals with severe obesity. Given the high prevalence of obesity in Türkiye and its strong association with cardiometabolic disorders, uncertainty exists regarding the applicability and agreement of contemporary cardiovascular risk estimation tools in this population. This study aimed to compare cardiovascular risk estimates derived from SCORE2, SCORE2-DM, and AHA PREVENT models across geographical regions in a large obese cohort from Türkiye, and to formally evaluate inter-model agreement and confounder-adjusted regional differences. Methods This multicenter retrospective analysis included 6,378 obese individuals recruited from seven geographical regions of Türkiye. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, anthropometric measurements, and laboratory data were obtained from standardized electronic medical records. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was estimated, rather than prospectively predicted, using SCORE2, SCORE2-DM, and AHA PREVENT equations. Regional comparisons were performed using the Kruskal–Wallis test and chi-square analysis. Inter-model agreement was assessed using Spearman correlation, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Bland–Altman analysis, and linear-weighted Cohen’s kappa for guideline-based risk strata. Multivariable linear regression was used to evaluate regional differences after a...