Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

作者：Kai Wan, Zhiqiang Feng, S. Hajat, R. Doherty · 发表于：Environmental Health · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1186/s12940-022-00912-5 · 被引用次数：50 · 研究领域：Medicine

Background Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown. Methods This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974–2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1 st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10 th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99 th compared to the 90 th percentile. Results Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold an...