The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

作者：K. Quigley, L. Bay, M. V. van Oppen · 发表于：Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1002/ece3.5616 · 被引用次数：87 · 研究领域：Biology、Medicine

Abstract The speed at which species adapt depends partly on the rates of beneficial adaptation generation and how quickly they spread within and among populations. Natural rates of adaptation of corals may not be able to keep pace with climate warming. Several interventions have been proposed to fast‐track thermal adaptation, including the intentional translocation of warm‐adapted adults or their offspring (assisted gene flow, AGF) and the ex situ crossing of warm‐adapted corals with conspecifics from cooler reefs (hybridization or selective breeding) and field deployment of those offspring. The introgression of temperature tolerance loci into the genomic background of cooler‐environment corals aims to facilitate adaptation to warming while maintaining fitness under local conditions. Here we use research on selective sweeps and connectivity to understand the spread of adaptive variants as it applies to AGF on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), focusing on the genus Acropora. Using larval biophysical dispersal modeling, we estimate levels of natural connectivity in warm‐adapted northern corals. We then model the spread of adaptive variants from single and multiple reefs and assess if the natural and assisted spread of adaptive variants will occur fast enough to prepare receiving central and southern populations given current rates of warming. We also estimate fixation rates and spatial extent of fixation under multiple release scenarios to inform intervention design. Our results su...