Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Austin E. Schumacher, H. Kyu, Amirali Aali, C. Abbafati, Jaffar Abbas, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, M. Abbasi, Mohammadreza Abbasian, S. ElHafeez, Michael Abdelmasseh, S. Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Mohammad Abdollahi, M. Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Ame Mehadi Abdurehman, Mesfin Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Armita Abedi, Tadesse M. Abegaz, R. Zuñiga, E. Abhilash, O. Abiodun, R. Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, M. Abouzid, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, M. R. Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Samir Abu Rumeileh, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, J. M. Acuna, Tim Adair, Isaac Yeboah Addo, O. Adebayo, O. Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Adepoju, C. Adetunji, T. Adeyeoluwa, O. Adeyomoye, Rishan Adha, Amin Adibi, W. Adikusuma, Q. Adnani, Saryia Adra, Abel Afework, A. Afolabi, Ali Afraz, Shadi Afyouni, Saira Afzal, P. Agasthi, Shahin Aghamiri, A. Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, B. Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, A. M. Ahmadzade, Mohadese Ahmadzade, Ayman Ahmed, H. Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, M. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, O. Ajumobi, G. T. Akalu, E. Akara, K. Akinosoglou, Sreelatha Akkala, Samuel Akyirem, H. A. Hamad, S. M. Hasan, Ammar Al Homsi, M. Qadire, Moein Ala, Timothy Olukunle Aladelusi, T. AL-Ahdal, Samer O. Alalalmeh, Z. Al-Aly, K. Alam, Manjurul Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh M. Al-amer, F. Alanezi, Turki M. Alanzi, Mohammed Albashtawy, M. Albataineh, R. Aldridge, Sharifullah Alemi, A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Gheethi, K. Alhabib, F. Alhalaiqa, M. K. Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Akhtar Ali, B. Ali, Hassam Ali, M. Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Zahid Ali, S. A. Samakkhah, G. Alicandro, S. M. Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Rasoul Alimi, Ahmednur Adem Aliyi, Adel Al-Jumaily, S. Aljunid, W. Almahmeed, Sabah Al-Marwani, S. Al-Maweri, Joseph Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, O. Almidani, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Nivaldo Alonso, J. Alqahtani, A. Alqutaibi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, J. Al-Tawfiq, K. Altirkawi, F. J. Alvi, Hassan Alwafi, Y. Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, K. Alzoubi, A. Amare, E. Ameyaw, A. F. Amhare, T. Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, J. A. Dehkordi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, D. Amugsi, J. Amzat, R. Ancuceanu, D. Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, C. Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Dhanalakshmi Angappan, Abhishek Anil, Afifa Anjum, C. Antony, E. Antriyandarti, Iyadunni A. Anuoluwa, S. L. Anwar, A. Anyasodor, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, M. Aqeel, J. Arabloo, R. Bahri, M. Arab-Zozani, M. Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, A. Aravkin, A. Aremu, Hany Ariffin, T. Aripov, B. Armocida, M. Arooj, A. Artamonov, K. D. Artanti, Judie Arulappan, Idowu Aruleba, R. T. Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Malke Asaad, Saeed Asgary, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, M. Ashraf, M. Asika, S. Athari, M. Atout, A. Atreya, Sameh Attia, A. Aujayeb, A. Avan, A. Awotidebe, B. Quintanilla, M. Ayanore, G. Ayele, J. Ayuso-Mateos, S. M. Ayyoubzadeh, S. Azadnajafabad, G. Azhar, Shahkaar Aziz, A. Azzam, M. Babashahi, Abraham Samuel Babu, Muhammad Badar, A. Badawi, Ashish D. Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, S. Bagherieh, S. Bah, S. Bahadorikhalili, Jianjun Bai, Ruhai Bai, Jennifer L. Baker, Shankar M. Bakkannavar, A. T. Bako, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Saliu A Balogun, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, B. Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, S. Barati, M. Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, S. Barker-Collo, Francesco Barone-Adesi, H. Barqawi, R. D. Barr, L. Barrero, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, H. Bashiru, Pritish Baskaran, Buddha Basnyat, Q. Bassat, João Diogo Basso, S. Basu, Kavita Batra, Ravi Batra, B. Baune, M. Bayati, N. Bayileyegn, Thomas Beaney, Neeraj Bedi, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, A. Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, U. Belgaumi, Michelle L. Bell, A. Bello, M. Bello, O. Bello, Luis Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, S. Bendak, Derrick A Bennett, I. Benseñor, Habib Benzian, Z. Berezvai, Adam E. Berman, A. N. Bermudez, P. J. Bettencourt, Habtamu B. Beyene, Kebede A. Beyene, D. Bhagat, A. Bhagavathula, N. Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, D. Bhandari, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V. Bhardwaj, A. Bhargava, Sonu M M Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, G. K. Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, M. Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Z. Bhutta, B. Bikbov, Nada Binmadi, B. S. Bintoro, A. Biondi, C. Bisignano, F. Bisulli, Atanu Biswas, R. Biswas, Saeid Bitaraf, T. Bjørge, A. Bleyer, M. S. Boampong, V. Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, M. Hashemi, A. Bonny, Kaustubh Bora, B. Basara, S. B. Borodo, Rohan Borschmann, A. B. Carvajal, S. Bouaoud, S. Boudalia, E. J. Boyko, N. Bragazzi, Dejana Braithwaite, H. Brenner, Gabrielle Britton, A. Browne, A. Brunoni, Norma B. Bulamu, L. Bulto, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A. Burns, S. Nagaraja, Reinhard Busse, Yasser K. Bustanji, Z. Butt, F. C. Santos, Tianji Cai, D. Calina, L. Cámera, L. A. Campos, Ismael Campos-Nonato, Chao Cao, C. Cardenas, Rosario Cárdenas, Sinclair Carr, G. Carreras, J. Carrero, A. Carugno, F. Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, J. Castaldelli-Maia, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, G. Castelpietra, F. Catalá-López, A. Catapano, M. Cattaruzza, A. Caye, Christopher R. Cederroth, Francieli Cembranel, Muthia Cenderadewi, Kelly M. Cercy, Ester Cerin, Muge Cevik, P. R. Chacón-Uscamaita, Yaacoub Chahine, C. Chakraborty, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Chin-Kuo Chang, P. Charalampous, J. Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, V. Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, M. Chavula, H. Cheema, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Lingxiao Chen, M. Chen, Simiao Chen, N. Cherbuin, Derek S Chew, Gerald Chi, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Abdulaal Chitheer, So Mi Jemma Cho, William C. S. Cho, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, R. Choudhary, Rajiv Chowdhury, D. Chu, I. Chukwu, Eric Chung, Eunice Chung, S. Chung, K. Cini, Cain C T Clark, Kaleb Coberly, A. Columbus, H. Comfort, J. Conde, Sara Conti, P. Cortesi, V. M. Costa, Ewerton Cousin, R. Cowden, M. Criqui, N. Cruz-Martins, Garland T. Culbreth, Patricia Cullen, Matthew Cunningham, D. P. D. Silva, Sriharsha Dadana, O. Dadras, Zhaoli Dai, K. Dalal, L. Dalli, G. Damiani, Emanuele D’Amico, Sara Daneshvar, A. Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, N. Dash, M. Dashti, C. Dávila-Cervantes, N. Weaver, K. Davletov, Diego De Leo, Aklilu Tamire Debele, L. Degenhardt, Reza Dehbandi, Lee Deitesfeld, Iván Delgado-Enciso, Laura Delgado-Ortiz, Daniel Demant, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, A. K. Demetriades, Xinlei Deng, E. Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, D. D. Jarlais, Hardik D. Desai, Rupak Desai, K. Deuba, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Sourav Dey, A. Dhali, K. Dhama, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, M. Dhimal, Sameer Dhingra, D. Silva, Daniel Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D. Ding, M. Dirac, Abhinav Dixit, S. Dixit, T. Do, Thao Phuong Do, C. Prado, Masoud Dodangeh, K. Dokova, C. Dolecek, E. Dorsey, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Rajkumar Doshi, L. Doshmangir, Abdel Douiri, Robert Kokou Dowou, T. Driscoll, H. Dsouza, John Dube, S. Dumith, S. Dunachie, Bruce B Duncan, A. Durães, Senbagam Duraisamy, O. Durojaiye, S. Dutta, Paulina A. Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Oluwakemi Ebenezer, E. Eboreime, Alireza Ebrahimi, C. Echieh, Abdelaziz Ed-Dra, H. Edinur, D. Edvardsson, Kristina Edvardsson, Defi Efendi, Ferry Efendi, Shayan Eghdami, T. Eikemo, E. Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Emmanuel Ekpor, T. Ekundayo, Rabie Adel El Arab, D. Morsi, M. Zaki, M. Tantawi, I. Elbarazi, N. Elemam, F. Elgar · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8 · 被引用次数：507 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mo...