Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study.

作者：David Garcia-Leon, P. Masselot, Malcolm N. Mistry, A. Gasparrini, Corrado Motta, L. Feyen, J. Ciscar · 发表于：Lancet Public Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00179-8 · 被引用次数：84 · 研究领域：Medicine

BACKGROUND Excessively high and low temperatures substantially affect human health. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems. Since localised assessments of temperature-related mortality risk are essential to formulate effective public health responses and adaptation strategies, we aimed to estimate the current and future temperature-related mortality risk under four climate change scenarios across all European regions. METHODS We modelled current and future mortality due to non-optimal temperatures across 1368 European regions, considering age-specific characteristics and local socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Overseas territories were excluded from the analysis. We applied a three-stage method to estimate temperature-related risk continuously across age and spatial dimensions. Age and city-specific exposure-response functions were obtained for a comprehensive list of 854 European cities from the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat. Regional aggregates were calculated using an aggregation and extrapolation method that incorporates the risk incidence in neighbouring cities. Mortality was projected for present conditions observed in 1991-2020 and for four different levels of global warming (1·5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C increase) by regions, and subregions using an ensemble of 11 climate models produced by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-CMIP5 over Europe, and popu...