Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

作者：Natalie C Patrick Y Rachel L Nancy Jason Sam Alyssa N Mega Galles Liu Updike Fullman Nguyen Rolfe Sbarra Schi, Natalie C. Galles, Patrick Liu, R. Updike, N. Fullman, Jason Nguyen, Sam Rolfe, A. Sbarra, Megan F Schipp, Ashley Marks, Gdiom Gebreheat Abady, K. Abbas, S. Abbasi, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Hassan Abolhassani, Akine Eshete Abosetugn, M. Adabi, A. A. Adamu, O. Adetokunboh, Q. Adnani, Shailesh M. Advani, Saira Afzal, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir, B. Ahinkorah, Sohail Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Sepideh Ahmadi, H. Ahmed, M. Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Yonas Akalu, A. Aklilu, C. Akunna, H. Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, L. Albano, Yared Alemayehu Ebsa, K. Alene, A. Al-Eyadhy, R. Alhassan, Liaqat Ali, S. Aljunid, Sami A. Almustanyir, K. Altirkawi, N. Alvis-Guzmán, Hubert Amu, C. Andrei, T. Andrei, Adnan Ansar, A. Ansari-Moghaddam, I. Antonazzo, Benny Antony, J. Arabloo, M. Arab-Zozani, K. D. Artanti, Judie Arulappan, Asma Awan, M. Awoke, Muluken Altaye Ayza, G. Azarian, A. Azzam, D. B, Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, S. Bante, T. Bärnighausen, H. Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Q. Bassat, Narantuya Bayarmagnai, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Habtamu Gebrehana Belay, U. Belgaumi, A. Bhagavathula, D. Bhandari, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, S. Bibi, A. Bijani, Antonio Biondi, A. Boloor, Dejana Braithwaite, Danilo Buonsenso, Z. Butt, Paulo Camargos, G. Carreras, Félix Carvalho, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, R. Chakinala, J. Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, V. Chattu, F. Chowdhury, D. Christopher, D. Chu, S. Chung, P. Cortesi, V. M. Costa, Rosa A A Couto, O. Dadras, A. Dagnew, Baye Dagnew, X. Dai, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, Jan-Walter De Neve, Meseret Derbew Molla, B. Derseh, Rupak Desai, A. Desta, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, M. Dhimal, M. Dianatinasab, Daniel Diaz, S. Djalalinia, Fariba Dorostkar, B. Edem, H. Edinur, S. Eftekharzadeh, I. El Sayed, M. El Sayed Zaki, Muhammed Elhadi, S. El-Jaafary, A. Elsharkawy, S. Enany, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Christopher Esezobor, S. Eskandarieh, I. Ezeonwumelu, S. Ezzikouri, Jawad Fares, P. Faris, B. Feleke, T. Y. Ferede, Eduarda Fernandes, João Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, I. Filip, Florian Fischer, Mark Rohit Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, M. Gad, Shilpa Gaidhane, S. Gallus, T. Garg, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, T. Gebre, B. Gebregiorgis, K. B. Gebremedhin, Berhe Gebremichael, B. Gessner, K. Ghadiri, M. Ghafourifard, A. Ghashghaee, S. Gilani, I. Glăvan, E. Glushkova, Mahaveer Golechha, Kebebe Bekele Gonfa, S. Gopalani, H. Goudarzi, M. I. Gubari, Yuming Guo, Veera Gupta, V. Gupta, R. A. Gutiérrez, Emily Haeuser, R. Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Shafiul Haque, H. Harapan, A. Hargono, Abdiwahab Hashi, Shoaib Hassan, M. Hassanein, S. Hassanipour, H. Hassankhani, S. Hay, Khezar Hayat, Mohamed I. Hegazy, G. Heidari, Kamal Hezam, R. Holla, M. E. Hoque, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, Mowafa J Househ, V. Hsieh, Junjie. Huang, A. Humayun, R. Hussain, N. Hussein, S. E. Ibitoye, O S Ilesanmi, I. Ilic, Milena Ilic, Sumant Inamdar, Usman Iqbal, L. Irham, S. Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, N. Ismail, Ramaiah Itumalla, R. Jha, F. Joukar, Alia Kabir, Z. Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Zul Kamal, Stanley M. Kamande, Himal Kandel, André Karch, Getinet Kassahun, N. Kassebaum, P. Katoto, Bayew Kelkay, A. Kengne, Yousef S. Khader, H. Khajuria, Ibrahim Khalil, E. Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Junaid Khan, Maseer Khan, Moien A. B. Khan, Y. Khang, A. Khoja, J. Khubchandani, G. Kim, M. Kim, Y. Kim, R. Kimokoti, A. Kisa, S. Kısa, V. A. Korshunov, S. Kosen, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, V. Kulkarni, Avinash Kumar, G. Kumar, Nithin Kumar, A. Kwarteng, C. la Vecchia, F. Lami, I. Landires, Savita Lasrado, Z. Lassi, Hankil Lee, Yeong Yeh Lee, Miriam Levi, Sonia Lewycka, Shan-Shan Li, Xuefeng Liu, S. Lobo, P. D. Lopukhov, Rafael Lozano, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Alaa Makki, A. Malik, F. Mansour-ghanaei, M. Mansournia, L. Mantovani, F. R. Martins-Melo, P. C. Matthews, J. R. C. Medina, W. Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, E. Mengesha, T. Meretoja, A. Mersha, Mohamed Mesregah MD, T. Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, G. Milne, Andreea Mirica, E. Mirrakhimov, H. Mirzaei, Sanjeev Misra, P. Mithra, M. Moghadaszadeh, Teroj Mohamed, K. A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad, M. Mohammadi, A. Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A. Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Archisman Mohapatra, A. Mokdad, M. Molokhia, L. Monasta, M. Moni, A. Montasir, C. Moore, Ghobad Moradi, R. Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, U. Mueller, Sandra B. Munro, M. Naghavi, Mukhammad David Naimzada, M. Naveed, B. Nayak, I. Negoi, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, T. Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, D. N. Ningrum, M. Nixon, C. Nnaji, J. J. Noubiap, V. Núñez-Samudio, V. Nwatah, B. Oancea, C. Ochir, F. Ogbo, A. Olagunju, B. Olakunde, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, M. Owolabi, J. Padubidri, K. Pakshir, Eun-Cheol Park, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Mona Pathak, R. Paudel, Shrikant Pawar, Jeevan Pereira, M. F. Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, M. Pinheiro, Majid Pirestani, Vivek Podder, R. Polibin, R. C. G. Pollok, Maarten J. Postma, F. Pottoo, M. Rabiee, N. Rabiee, A. Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, V. Rahimi-Movaghar, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Aashish Rajesh, Rebecca E. Ramshaw, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R. Rao, Sowmya J. Rao, P. Rathi, D. Rawaf, S. Rawaf, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Negar Rezaei, M. S. Rezai, M. Ríos-Blancas, E. L. Rogowski, L. Ronfani, G. M. Rwegerera, A. Saad, Siamak Sabour, B. Saddik, M. Saeb, U. Saeed, A. Sahebkar, M. Sahraian, Nasir Salam, H. Salimzadeh, Mehrnoosh Samaei, A. Samy, J. Sanabria, F. Sanmarchi, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, B. Sartorius, Arash Sarveazad, B. Sathian, M. Sawhney, Deepak Saxena, Sonia Saxena, A. Seidu, Allen Seylani, M. Shaikh, M. Shamsizadeh, Pavanchand H Shetty, M. Shigematsu, J. Shin, Negussie Boti Sidemo, A. Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, S. Sinha, V. Skryabin, A. Skryabina, A. Soheili, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Ker-Kan Tan, Yohannes Tekalegn, M. Temsah, B. Thakur, Rekha Thapar, A. Thavamani, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, H. Tohidinik, M. Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Manjari Tripathi, Berhan Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Anayat Ullah, Saif Ullah, Sana Ullah, B. Unim, M. Vacante, D. Velazquez, B. Võ, S. Vollmer, G. Vu, Linh Vu, Yasir Waheed, Andrea S. Winkler, C. Wiysonge, Vahit Yi̇ği̇t, Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw, D. Yon, N. Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Deniz Yuce, Ismaeel Yunusa, M. Zamani, M. Zamanian, D. Zewdie, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, A. Zumla, C. Murray, Stephen S. Lim, J. Mosser · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00984-3 · 被引用次数：190 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty i...