The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

作者：H. Kyu, Emilie Maddison, N. Henry, J. Mumford, Ryan M. Barber, Chloe Shields, Jonathan C. Brown, Grant Nguyen, A. Carter, Timothy M. Wolock, Hai-Dong Wang, Patrick Y. Liu, M. Reitsma, Jennifer M. Ross, A. Abajobir, K. H. Abate, K. Abbas, M. Abera, S. Abera, Habtamu Abera Hareri, M. Ahmed, K. Alene, N. Alvis-Guzmán, J. Amo‐Adjei, J. Andrews, H. Ansari, C. Antonio, P. Anwari, H. Asayesh, T. Atey, Sachin R. Atre, Aleksandra Barac, J. Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, I. Benseñor, A. Beyene, Z. Butt, P. Cardona, D. Christopher, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, K. Deribe, A. Deribew, R. Ehrenkranz, M. El Sayed Zaki, A. Endries, T. R. Feyissa, Florian Fischer, R. Gai, A. García-Basteiro, T. Gebrehiwot, H. Gesesew, B. Getahun, P. Gona, A. Goodridge, H. Gugnani, H. Haghparast-Bidgoli, G. B. Hailu, H. Hassen, E. Hilawe, Nobuyuki Horita, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, J. Jonas, A. Kasaeian, Muktar Sano Kedir, L. Kemmer, Yousef S. Khader, E. Khan, Y. Khang, A. Khoja, Y. Kim, P. Koul, A. Koyanagi, Kristopher J. Krohn, G. Kumar, Michael Kutz, R. Lodha, Hassan Magdy And El Razek, R. Majdzadeh, T. Manyazewal, Z. Memish, W. Mendoza, H. Mezgebe, Shafiu Mohammed, F. Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, E. Oren, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, David M Pereira, Dietrich Plass, F. Pourmalek, Mostafa Qorbani, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, R. Rai, P. Rao, S. E. Ray, R. Reiner, Nickolas Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Joshua A. Salomon, Logan Sandar, B. Sartorius, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Shey, D. M. Shifti, H. Shore, Jasvinder A. Singh, C. Sreeramareddy, S. Swaminathan, S. Swartz, Fentaw Tadese, B. Tedla, B. Tegegne, B. Tessema, R. Topór-Mądry, K. Ukwaja, Olalekan A. Uthman, V. Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Tolassa Wakayo, S. Weldegebreal, R. Westerman, A. Workicho, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, M. Yotebieng, M. Naghavi, S. Hay, Theo Vos, C. Murray · 发表于：Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print) · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(17)30703-x · 被引用次数：356 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 millio...