Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

作者：P. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, T. Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin D. Lamboll, C. Cassou, M. Hauser, Z. Hausfather, June‐Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, K. von Schuckmann, A. Slangen, S. Szopa, B. Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, N. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Matthews, K. Raghavan, A. Ribes, J. Rogelj, D. Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, R. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, A. Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha Burgess, Lijing Cheng, P. Friedlingstein, C. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John J. Kennedy, R. Killick, P. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin P. Morice, J. Mühle, V. Naik, G. P. Peters, Anna Pirani, J. Pongratz, J. Minx, M. Rigby, Robert Rohde, A. Savita, S. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher D. Wells, L. Western, G. R. van der Werf, S. E. Wijffels, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai · 发表于：Earth System Science Data · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025 · 被引用次数：201

Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induc...