A Novel Two-Stage Trading Strategy of D-2 Contracts Decomposition for Wind Farms: Tackling Dual Settlement and Implementation Rules

作者：Xili Du, Haochen Gong, Youbo Liu, Yuben Tang, Sashuang Sun, Zhuoyu Wang · 发表于：2026 11th Asia Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering (ACPEE) · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1109/acpee69242.2026.11524276

In China, wind farms’ entire output entering the market is jointly regulated by the market operator and system operator. Consequently, their revenues face dual challenges: market-related and technical. At the market level, before participating in the spot market (D), medium- and long-term bilateral power contracts must be decomposed into a deterministic power curve two day ahead (D-2) as baseline profile. Conventional decomposition methods ignore the optimal weight allocation between bilateral deals and spot prices, which may result in excessive deviation between the D-2 and on-grid curves, potentially causing unexpected revenue losses. At the dispatch level, operational penalties caused by physical offsets between the predicted and on-grid curves need to be carefully considered to avoid increasing operating costs. We propose a two-stage approach: aiming to maximize generation profit, Stage 1 comprehensively analyzes the effects of price differences and deviation thresholds across markets. Based on this analysis, it proposes a D-2 curve decomposition method that couples D-2 output forecasting with the contract decomposition decision process. To minimize operating costs, Stage 2 optimizes reported forecasted power and on-grid power by considering the impact of D-2 power. It then designs a two-stage trading strategy for wind farms to coordinate settlement and dispatch. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method enhances wind farms’ market competitiveness, while analyzing...