Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

作者：L. Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, L. Bopp, O. Aumont, M. Chamberlain, J. Christian, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, T. Ilyina, J. John, A. Lenton, Hongmei Li, N. Lovenduski, J. Orr, J. Palmiéri, Yeray Santana‐Falcón, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, C. Stock, A. Tagliabue, Y. Takano, J. Tjiputra, K. Toyama, H. Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, A. Yamamoto, A. Yool, T. Ziehn · 发表于：Biogeosciences · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · 被引用次数：678

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally...