Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks

作者：M. Kotz, M. Donat, T. Lancaster, Miles Parker, Peter Smith, Anna Taylor, S. Vetter · 发表于：Environmental Research Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Physics

2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5qC above preindustrial climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth’s surface. Among the widespread impacts of exceptional heat, rising food prices are beginning to play a prominent role in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of climate change experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices, as impacts on agricultural production translate into supply shortages and food price inflation. These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term spikes in response to extreme heat. In this perspective, we document numerous examples from recent years in which food prices of specific goods spiked in response to climate extremes. By evaluating the extremity of the associated climate conditions, we thereby build a global and climatological context for this phenomenon. We further review the knock-on societal risks which these effects may bring with the ongoing intensification of extremes under climate change. These range from increasing economic inequality and the burden on health systems, as well as destabilising monetary and political systems. We discuss challenges and priorities for research and policy to address these risks.