Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather

作者：G. Nichols, E. Gillingham, H. Macintyre, S. Vardoulakis, S. Hajat, C. Sarran, David Amankwaah, R. Phalkey · 发表于：BMC Infectious Diseases · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1186/s12879-021-06785-2 · 被引用次数：81 · 研究领域：Medicine、Biology

The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases. Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient’s specimen date with a range of lag periods. The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989–2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1–7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2–2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution ...