Estimating global and regional disruptions to routine childhood vaccine coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: a modelling study

作者：K. Causey, N. Fullman, R. Sorensen, Natalie C. Galles, P. Zheng, A. Aravkin, M. Danovaro-Holliday, R. Martinez-Piedra, S. Sodha, Martha Velandia-González, M. Gacic-Dobo, Emma Castro, Jia-Wei He, Megan Schipp, A. Deen, S. Hay, Stephen S. Lim, J. Mosser · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01337-4 · 被引用次数：343 · 研究领域：Medicine

Background The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission substantially affected health services worldwide. To better understand the impact of the pandemic on childhood routine immunisation, we estimated disruptions in vaccine coverage associated with the pandemic in 2020, globally and by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) super-region. Methods For this analysis we used a two-step hierarchical random spline modelling approach to estimate global and regional disruptions to routine immunisation using administrative data and reports from electronic immunisation systems, with mobility data as a model input. Paired with estimates of vaccine coverage expected in the absence of COVID-19, which were derived from vaccine coverage models from GBD 2020, Release 1 (GBD 2020 R1), we estimated the number of children who missed routinely delivered doses of the third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in 2020. Findings Globally, in 2020, estimated vaccine coverage was 76·7% (95% uncertainty interval 74·3–78·6) for DTP3 and 78·9% (74·8–81·9) for MCV1, representing relative reductions of 7·7% (6·0–10·1) for DTP3 and 7·9% (5·2–11·7) for MCV1, compared to expected doses delivered in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. From January to December, 2020, we estimated that 30·0 million (27·6–33·1) children missed doses of DTP3 and 27·2 million (23·4–32·5) children missed MCV1 doses. Compared to expected gaps in coverage ...