The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

作者：Lisa M. Force, Jonathan M Kocarnik, Miranda L May, K. Bhangdia, Andrew Crist, Louise Penberthy, Natalie Pritchett, Alistair Acheson, Lee Deitesfeld, B. A, Hasan Aalruz, Nasir Abbas, Maryam Abbasalipour bashash, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, S. A. Abd ElHafeez, Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla, M. A. Abdalla, Wael M Abdel-Rahman, P. Abdi, Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa, D. Abdissa, Arash Abdollahi, M. Abdoun, A. Abdous, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Armita Abedi, Syed Hani Abidi, Alemwork Abie, O. Abiodun, R. Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, U. Abonie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, A. Abubakar, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Hana J. Abukhadijah, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, R. Achar, J. M. Acuna, Lisa C. Adams, L. Adamu, I. Y. Addo, Kamoru A. Adedokun, N. A. Adegoke, Victor Adekanmbi, I. Adesiyan, H. Adewuyi, U. Adiga, Q. Adnani, P. Adoma, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Ahmed M. Afifi, A. Afolabi, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Arya Afrooghe, M. Afzal, S. B. Agampodi, Navidha Aggarwal, Feleke Doyore Agide, Cesar Agostinis Sobrinho, Williams Agyemang-Duah, B. Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Faisal Ahmad, Khurshid Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Elham Ahmadi, A. M. Ahmadzade, Mohadese Ahmadzade, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, G. S. Ahmed, Ibrar Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, M. Ahmed, Nesredin Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, D. Ajala, Marjan Ajami, R. Akhigbe, K. Akinosoglou, Salah Al Awaidy, Hanadi Al Hamad, S. A. Al Hasan, Omar Al Omari, Mohammad Al Qadire, Yazan Al Thaher, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, K. Alam, Zufishan Alam, Amani N. Alansari, Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal, Laila Al-Daken, W. Aldhaleei, Shereen M. Aleidi, Beza Alemayehu, A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Algammal, A. Al-Gheethi, M. K. Al-Hanawi, Dari Alhuwail, Abid Ali, Endale Alemayehu Ali, Mohammad Ali, M. Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Waad Ali, S. M. Alif, Samah W. Al-Jabi, S. Aljunid, A. Alkhatib, N. Almasri, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem, Hasan Y. Alniss, Margret Beaula Alocious Sukumar, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Mohammad R. Alosta, Saleh A Alqahtani, A. Al-Qudimat, R. Al-Raddadi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Intima Alrimawi, S. Alrousan, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Najim Z. Alshahrani, Awais Altaf, Ala’a B. Al-Tammemi, Elysia M. Alvarez, N. Alvis-Guzmán, Y. Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya, A. Alzoubi, K. Alzoubi, Md Akib Al-Zubayer, Masoud Aman mohammadi, T. Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, S. Aminnia, Nafiu Aminu, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, G. Amusa, R. Ancuceanu, D. Anderlini, Abhishek Anil, Amir Anoushiravani, Hossein Ansariniya, Iyadunni A. Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, S. Anwar, R. Anwer, Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyabolo, A. Anyasodor, Angela E Apeagyei, J. P. Arab, J. Arabloo, R. Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, M. Arafat, A. Aravkin, M. Arcieri, D. Areda, Hany Ariffin, Mesay Arkew, A. Artamonov, Santhosh Arul, Deepavalli Arumuganainar, M. Asghari-Jafarabadi, A. Ashames, M. Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, B. Asiamah-Asare, Haftu Asmerom, B. Assembekov, Smita Asthana, P. Atorkey, M. Atout, J. A. Atta, M. Ausloos, A. Awedew, A. Awotidebe, B. A. Ayala Quintanilla, H. Ayatollahi, S. M. Ayyoubzadeh, A. Azargoonjahromi, Amirali Azimi, Mohd Yusmaidie Aziz, S. Aziz, Shahkaar Aziz, Hosein Azizi, A. Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D. Badiye, A. A. Badran, Nasser Bagheri, Fereshteh Baghizadeh, Razieh Bahreini, Ruhai Bai, A. Baig, L. Bains, R. Bajpai, Shankar M. Bakkannavar, A. A. Bala, W. F. Balcha, Mohammadreza Balooch Hasankhani, Soham Bandyopadhyay, R. Banik, A. Barać, S. Barati, Mainak Bardhan, S. Barker-Collo, H. Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Z. Basharat, Shahid Bashir, A. Basiru, P. Baskaran, Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan, Kavita Batra, Matteo Bauckneht, M. Bayati, Feyisa Bayisa, N. Beeraka, Babak Behnam, A. Behnoush, P. Behzadi, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, S. A. Belachew, Gokce Belge Bilgin, Luis Belo, Habib Benzian, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, A. N. Bermudez, A. Bhadoria, A. Bhagavathula, N. Bhakta, N. Bhala, Ravi G. Bharadwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V. Bhardwaj, Sonu M M Bhaskar, A. Bhat, Vivek Bhat, Shuvarthi Bhattacharjee, G. K. Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, M. Bhuiyan, S. Bhuyan, Raluca Bievel-Radulescu, Cem Bilgin, C. Bisignano, M. Biswas, Monirujjaman Biswas, B. Bizzozero-Peroni, T. Bjørge, Trupti Bodhare, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, A. Boloor, Hamed Borhany, S. Bosoka, A. Botero Carvajal, S. Bouaoud, Marija M Bozic, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, H. Brenner, Linh Phuong Bui, Katrin Burkart, F. Busch, M. T. Bustamante-Teixeira, Yasser K. Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Z. Butt, Guangyao Cai, L. Cámera, Ismael Campos-Nonato, Si Cao, Yubin Cao, A. Capodici, G. Carreras, M. Carvalho, C. Castañeda-Orjuela, F. Catalá-López, M. Cattaruzza, L. Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, A. Cernigliaro, Sonia Cerrai, A. Chakraborty, Chiranjib Chakraborty, S. Chakraborty, R. Chandika, V. Chattu, A. Chaudhary, Sirshendu Chaudhuri, A. Chaurasia, Galmesa Bekana Chemeda, Hana Chen, Kai Chen, M. Chen, Fatemeh Chichagi, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Patrick R. Ching, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, William C. S. Cho, Dong-Woo Choi, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Yuen Yu Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Shivani Chopra, Hou In Chou, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, D. Chu, I. Chukwu, Eric Chung, Sunghyun Chung, Iolanda Cioffi, A. Columbus, J. Conde, V. M. Costa, N. Cruz-Martins, Bashir Dabo, O. Dadras, X. Dai, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, L. D’Anna, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, R. Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, A. Darwesh, Saswati Das, N. Dash, M. Dashti, Cornelius Dassah, D. Davletov, Fernando Pio de la Hoz, Frances Dean, E. Dee, S. Deekonda, M. Delsoz, A. Demeke, E. Denova-Gutiérrez, Rupak Desai, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Gashaw Dessie, Devananda Devegowda, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, A. Dhali, A. Dhane, M. Dhimal, Sameer Dhingra, B. Dhungel, M. Di Pumpo, L. A. Díaz, M. J. Diaz, Thao Phuong Do, S. Doaei, F. Dondi, Fariba Dorostkar, W. M. dos Santos, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, L. Doshmangir, T. Dosumu, Robert Kokou Dowou, M. T. Dresse, John Dube, Senbagam Duraisamy, O. Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, A. E’mar, H. Edinur, Behrad Eftekhari, Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh, Michael Ekholuenetale, T. Ekundayo, R. E. El Arab, Abdelfatteh El Omri, Iman El Sayed, M. El Sayed Zaki, R. Elahi, N. Elemam, Muhammed Elhadi, W. El‐Huneidi, Sherif Elkannishy, A. O. Elmehrath, Adel B. Elmoselhi, Randa Elsheikh, Yasser M. El-Sherbiny, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Abdelgawad Salah Abdelgawad Eltahawy, M. Eltahir, Syed Emdadul Haque, T. Emeto, T. Emran, Destaw Endeshaw, B. Eshrati, M. Eslami, S. Ezzikouri, Heidar Fadavian, A. Fagbamigbe, A. Fahim, S. Fahimi, A. Fahira, I. Fakhradiyev, Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh, L. Falzone, Alireza Farahani, Mohammad Farahmand, Seyed Nooredin Faraji, M. Faramarzpour, Ebrahim Farashi, Zaki Farhana, M. Faris, P. Faris, Andre Faro, Umar Farooque, Hossein Farrokhpour, A. Fasanmi, Kiana Fasihi, Emmanuel Toluwani Fasusi, Hamed Fattahi, Alireza Feizkhah, G. Fekadu, Daniel Ferrante, Pietro Ferrara, N. Ferreira, G. Fetensa, Florian Fischer, James L. Fisher, Bobirca Teodor Florin, O. S. Folayan, Arianna Fornari, A. Forouhari, B. Foroutan, Maryam Fotouhi, T. Fukumoto, A. Fukunaga, M. Gadanya, Márió Gajdács, S. Gallus, A. Gamawa, A. Gandhi, S. Gangachannaiah, Mounika Gangireddy, Jacopo Garlasco, R. Gautam, Feven Sahle Gebre, M. W. Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, T. G. Gebremeskel, Haftay Gebremedhin Gebreslassie, Gebremariam Wulie Geremew, Genanew Kassie Getahun, Sadegh Ghafarian, A. Ghaffari Jolfayi, L. Gharaibeh, Haniyeh Ghasrsaz, Fariba Ghassemi, R. Ghazy, M. Gholamalizadeh, Nasim Gholizadeh, Elena Ghotbi, Konstantinos Giannakis, A. Gil, Syed Abdullah Gilani, Alemea girmay, Alessandro Girombelli, Amit Goel, A. K. Goel, Mahaveer Golechha, Davide Golinelli, M. Goodarzian, G. Gorini, Changhao Gu, Shi-Yang Guan, G. Guarducci, M. I. Gubari, Zheng Guo, Zhifeng Guo, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, R. A. Gutiérrez, J. Guzmán-Esquivel, Adrina Habibzadeh · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01635-6 · 被引用次数：267 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries lack up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden through 2050. Methods Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 through 2050, we used the...