A Two-Layer Rolling Optimization Method for Traction Power Supply Systems Based on Model Predictive Control

作者：Hong-Bo Cheng, Qiang Gao, Shou-Xing Wan, Jin-Qing Xu, Xing Wang · 发表于：Energies · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.3390/en19071751 · 被引用次数：1

With the integration of renewable energy into traction power supply systems at a high proportion and penetration level, the intermittency and randomness of renewable energy output significantly intensify the fluctuation characteristics of traction loads, posing severe challenges to the stable operation and precise dispatch of the system. To effectively address the dynamic tracking and anti-disturbance issues arising from the dual uncertainties of source and load, this paper proposes a dual-timescale two-layer optimization dispatch strategy based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). In the upper-layer optimization, with the objective of optimal system economic operation, a multi-step rolling optimization method is adopted to formulate a long-timescale baseline dispatch plan, fully considering the temporal correlation of photovoltaic and wind power outputs and the periodic characteristics of traction loads. In the lower-layer optimization, aimed at smoothing power fluctuations and correcting prediction deviations, the technical advantages of supercapacitors—high power density and fast response—are utilized to perform real-time tracking and dynamic compensation of the upper-layer baseline plan. This effectively reduces the impact of prediction errors on control accuracy, achieves smooth control of tie-line power, and enhances overall system stability. Case study results based on an actual railway traction power supply system demonstrate that the proposed method can fully leverage ...