Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

作者：M. Cesare, J. Bentham, G. Stevens, Bin Zhou, G. Danaei, Yuan Lu, Honor Bixby, M. Cowan, L. Riley, Kaveh Hajifathalian, L. Fortunato, C. Taddei, J. Bennett, Nayu Ikeda, Y. Khang, C. Kyobutungi, A. Laxmaiah, Yanping Li, Hsien-Ho Lin, J. Miranda, A. Mostafa, M. Turley, C. Paciorek, M. Gunter, M. Ezzati, Z. Abdeen, Zargar Abdul Hamid, N. Abu-Rmeileh, Benjamín Acosta-Cázares, R. Adams, W. Aekplakorn, C. Aguilar-Salinas, A. Ahmadvand, W. Ahrens, M. M. Ali, A. Alkerwi, M. Álvarez-Pedrerol, Eman Aly, P. Amouyel, A. Amuzu, L. Andersen, S. Anderssen, Dolores S. Andrade, R. Anjana, H. Aounallah-Skhiri, I. Ariansen, T. Aris, N. Arlappa, D. Arveiler, F. Assah, M. Avdičová, F. Azizi, B. Babu, N. Balakrishna, P. Bandosz, J. Banegas, C. Barbagallo, A. Barceló, A. Barkat, M. V. Barros, I. Bata, A. Batieha, R. Batista, L. Baur, R. Beaglehole, H. Romdhane, M. Benet, A. Bernabé-Ortiz, G. Bernotiene, H. Bettiol, A. Bhagyalaxmi, S. Bharadwaj, S. Bhargava, Z. Bhatti, Z. Bhutta, Hong-Sheng Bi, Y. Bi, P. Bjerregaard, E. Bjertness, M. B. Bjertness, C. Björkelund, M. Blake, A. Blokstra, Simona Bo, M. Bobak, L. Boddy, B. Boehm, H. Boeing, C. Boissonnet, V. Bongard, P. Bovet, L. Braeckman, M. Bragt, I. Brajkovich, F. Branca, Juergen Breckenkamp, H. Brenner, L. Brewster, G. Brian, G. Bruno, H. Bueno‐de‐Mesquita, A. Bugge, C. Burns, A. León, J. Cacciottolo, Tilema Cama, C. Cameron, J. Camolas, G. Can, A. P. Cândido, V. Capuano, V. Cardoso, M. J. Carvalho, F. Casanueva, J. Casas, C. Caserta, K. Castetbon, S. Chamukuttan, A. Chan, Q. Chan, H. Chaturvedi, N. Chaturvedi, Chien-Jen Chen, Fangfang Chen, Huashuai Chen, Shuohua Chen, Zhengming Chen, Ching-Yu Cheng, A. Chetrit, A. Chiolero, S. Chiou, A. Chiriță-Emandi, Yumi Cho, K. Christensen, J. Chudek, R. Cífková, F. Claessens, E. Clays, H. Concin, C. Cooper, R. Cooper, T. Coppinger, S. Costanzo, D. Cottel, C. Cowell, C. Craig, A. Crujeiras, G. D'Arrigo, E. d'Orsi, J. Dallongeville, A. Damasceno, C. Damsgaard, R. Dankner, L. Dauchet, G. Backer, D. Bacquer, G. Gaetano, S. Henauw, D. Smedt, M. Deepa, A. Deev, A. Dehghan, H. Delisle, F. Delpeuch, K. Dhana, A. Castelnuovo, J. S. Dias-da-Costa, Alejandro Díaz, S. Djalalinia, Ha T. P. Do, A. Dobson, C. Donfrancesco, A. Doering, K. Doua, W. Drygas, E. Egbagbe, R. Eggertsen, U. Ekelund, J. Ati, P. Elliott, R. Engle-Stone, R. Erasmus, C. Erem, L. Eriksen, J. E. L. Peña, A. Evans, D. Faeh, C. Fall, F. Farzadfar, F. Félix-Redondo, T. Ferguson, D. Fernández-Bergés, D. Ferrante, M. Ferrari, C. Ferreccio, J. Ferrières, J. Finn, K. Fischer, Eric Monterubio Flores, B. Foeger, L. Foo, Ann‐Sofie Forslund, S. Fortmann, H. Fouad, Damian K. Francis, M. Franco, O. Franco, G. Frontera, F. Fuchs, S. Fuchs, Y. Fujita, Takuro Furusawa, Z. Gaciong, M. Gafencu, D. Gareta, S. Garnett, J. Gaspoz, Magda Gasull, Louise Gates, J. Geleijnse, Anoosheh Ghasemian, S. Giampaoli, F. Gianfagna, J. Giovannelli, A. Giwercman, R. Goldsmith, M. Gross, J. P. G. Rivas, M. B. Gorbea, F. Gottrand, Sidsel Graff Iversen, D. Grafnetter, Aneta Grajda, M. Grammatikopoulou, R. D. Gregor, T. Grodzicki, A. Grøntved, G. Gruden, V. Grujić, D. Gu, O. Guan, V. Gudnason, Ramiro Guerrero, I. Guessous, A. Guimarães, M. Gulliford, Johanna Gunnlaugsdottir, Xiu H Guo, Yin Guo, P. Gupta, O. Gureje, Beata Gurzkowska, L. Gutierrez, F. Gutzwiller, J. Halkjær, R. Hardy, R. Kumar, A. Hayes, Jiang He, M. Hendriks, L. H. Cadena, R. Heshmat, Ilpo Tapani Hihtaniemi, S. Ho, S. Ho, M. Hobbs, A. Hofman, C. Hormiga, B. Horta, L. Houti, T. Htay, A. Htet, M. Htike, Yonghua Hu, A. Hussieni, Chinh Nguyen Huu, I. Huybrechts, N. Hwalla, L. Iacoviello, A. Iannone, M. Ibrahim, M. Ikram, V. Irazola, Muhammad Islam, M. Iwasaki, R. Jackson, Jeremy Michael Jacobs, T. Jafar, K. Jamil, K. Jamrozik, Grazyna Jasienska, C. Jiang, M. Joffres, M. Johansson, J. Jonas, T. Jørgensen, P. Joshi, A. Juolevi, G. Jurak, V. Jureša, R. Kaaks, A. Kafatos, O. Kalter‐Leibovici, E. Kapantais, A. Kasaeian, J. Katz, P. Kaur, M. Kavousi, U. Keil, L. K. Boker, R. Kelishadi, H. Kemper, A. Kengne, M. Kersting, T. Key, Y. Khader, D. Khalili, K. Khaw, I. Khouw, S. Kiechl, J. Killewo, Jeongseon Kim, Y. Kiyohara, Jeannette Klimont, E. Kolle, P. Kolsteren, P. Korrovits, S. Koskinen, K. Kouda, S. Kozieł, W. Kratzer, S. Krokstad, D. Kromhout, H. Kruger, K. Kula, Z. Kułaga, R. Kumar, Y. S. Kusuma, K. Kuulasmaa, F. Laamiri, T. Laatikainen, C. Lachat, Y. Laid, T. Lam, O. Landrove, V. Lánská, G. Lappas, L. E. Laugsand, Khanh Le Bao, T. D. Le, C. Leclercq, Jongseok Lee, Jeonghee Lee, T. Lehtimäki, Rampal Lekhraj, L. León-Muñoz, W. Lim, M. F. Lima-Costa, Xu Lin, A. Linneberg, L. Lissner, M. Litwin, Jing-Jie Liu, R. Lorbeer, P. Lotufo, J. Lozano, D. Lukšienė, A. Lundqvist, N. Lunet, P. Lytsy, G. Ma, S. Machi, S. Maggi, D. Magliano, Marcia Makdisse, R. Malekzadeh, R. Malhotra, Kodavanti Mallikharjuna Rao, Y. Manios, J. Mann, E. Manzato, P. Margozzini, O. Markey, P. Marques-Vidal, J. Marrugat, Y. Martin-Prével, R. Martorell, S. Masoodi, T. Matsha, A. Mazur, J. Mbanya, S. McFarlane, S. McGarvey, M. Mckee, S. McLachlan, R. McLean, B. McNulty, S. M. Yusof, S. Médiène-Benchekor, A. Meirhaeghe, C. Meisinger, L. Mendes, A. Menezes, Gert B. M. Mensink, I. Meshram, A. Metspalu, J. Mi, K. F. Michaelsen, Kairit Mikkel, Jody C. Miller, J. Miquel, M. Misigoj-Durakovic, M. Mohamed, K. Mohammad, N. Mohammadifard, V. Mohan, M. F. Yusoff, D. Molbo, N. Møller, D. Molnár, C. Mondo, E. Monterrubio, K. Monyeki, L. Moreira, A. Morejón, L. Moreno, K. Morgan, Erik Lykke Mortensen, G. Moschonis, M. Mossakowska, J. Mota, M. Motlagh, Jorge Motta, Thet Thet Mu, M. Muiesan, M. Mueller-Nurasyid, N. Murphy, J. Mursu, E. Murtagh, K. Musa, V. Musil, G. Nagel, Harunobu Nakamura, Jana Námešná, E. K. Nang, V. Nangia, M. Nankap, S. Narake, E. Navarrete-Muñoz, I. Nenko, M. Neovius, F. Nervi, H. Neuhauser, N. Nguyen, Q. Nguyen, R. Nieto-Martínez, G. Ning, T. Ninomiya, S. Nishtar, M. Noale, T. Norat, D. Noto, M. Nsour, D. O'Reilly, Angélica M. Ochoa-Avilés, Kyungwon Oh, Iman H. Olayan, M. Olinto, M. Ołtarzewski, M. Omar, P. Ordunez, Ana P. Ortíz, M. Osler, C. Osmond, S. Ostojić, J. Otero, K. Overvad, F. Paccaud, C. Padez, A. Pająk, D. Palli, A. Palloni, L. Palmieri, S. Panda-Jonas, F. Panza, W. Parnell, M. Parsaeian, M. Pednekar, P. Peeters, S. Peixoto, A. Pereira, C. Pérez, A. Peters, N. Peykari, Son T. Pham, I. Pigeot, H. Pikhart, A. Pilav, L. Pilotto, F. Pistelli · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(16)30054-x · 被引用次数：4604 · 研究领域：Medicine

Summary Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Af...