Global burden of breast cancer and its association with red meat consumption: spatiotemporal trends, projections, and triangulation of evidence

作者：Wang Z, Gao J, Liu Z, Gong Y, Xu X, Zhao H, Zhang Y, Zhang L · 发表于：World journal of surgical oncology · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1186/s12957-026-04426-z · 研究领域：Age–period–cohort、Bayesian age–period–cohor、Breast cancer、Burden of disease、Joinpoint

BACKGROUND: Despite being the leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women globally, a comprehensive understanding of breast cancer (BC) remains limited due to gaps in data quality, geographic coverage, burden metrics, and risk factor attribution. This study utilized a multi-model approach to assess the global burden of BC and its projected trends, complemented by Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to explore the potential causal relationship between red meat consumption and BC risk. METHODS: This study utilized GBD data from 1990 to 2021 to assess the epidemiology of BC. Temporal trends and risk factor dynamics were examined using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analyses. Bayesian APC modeling was employed to project the disease burden through 2030. The analysis was stratified by socio-demographic index (SDI) and conducted by continent. Disease attribution factors were validated through MR. RESULTS: The study identified significant geographical and gender disparities in global BC epidemiological patterns in 2021. Analysis of data from 1990 to 2021 revealed age-dependent variations in disease burden, particularly affecting populations aged 50 years and older. Although global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates exhibited an overall decline, incidence rates continued to rise. Female DALYs consistently exceeded those of males, with male metrics showing post-peak declines and projected further reductions by 2030. Both genders dem...