Global, regional, and national epidemiology of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in middle-aged and elderly patients from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND: In recent years, changes in the incidence and mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma have occurred globally, across various regions, and among different countries. As a high incidence group, it is necessary to study the prevalence trend of middle-aged and elderly people. METHODS: Detailed information on NPC in middle-aged and elderly patients from 1990 to 2021 was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021 (GBD2021). Adopted incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), sociodemographic index (SDI) and corresponding Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to assess the burden of NPC in middle-aged and elderly patients. Additionally, a global risk attribution analysis was conducted, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the global burden of NPC in middle-aged and elderly patients from 2021 to 2035. FINDINGS: Globally, the incidence cases of NPC in middle-aged and elderly people increased by 58.2 %, the numbers of death increased by 33.8 %, and the DALY increased by 42.1 %. However, the EAPCs values and upper limits in incidence, mortality and DALY rates were all less than 0, indicating a decreasing trend of incidence, mortality and disease burden. Both incidence and mortality rates were decreasing in high-incidence territories. Most regions were negatively correlated with the sociodemographic index. Males had obviously higher incidence and mortality of NPC in middle-aged and elderly patients t...