Machine learning prediction models and nomogram to predict the risk of in-hospital death for severe DKA: A clinical study based on MIMIC-IV, eICU databases, and a college hospital ICU

AIM: To establish a prediction model and assess the risk factors for severe diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in adult patients during the ICU. INTRODUCTION: With DKA hospitalization rates consistently increasing, in-hospital mortality has become a growing concern. METHODS: DKA patients aged >18 years old in the US-based critical care database (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV)) were considered. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were screened using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) optimal subset regression. One predictive model was developed using machine learning extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and the other one was a nomogram based on logistic regression to estimate risks of in-hospital mortality with severe DKA. Established models were assessed by using internal validation and external validation. The MIMIC-IV was split into training and testing samples in a 7:3 ratio. The eICU Collaborative Research Database and admissions data from the department of critical care medicine of the first affiliated hospital of Harbin medical university were used for independent validation. The discriminatory ability of the model was determined by illustrating a receiver operating curve (ROC) and calculating the C-index. Meanwhile, the calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (HL test) was conducted to evaluate the performance of our new build model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was perfo...