Preface

作者：Richard Ned Lebow, Feng Zhang · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1093/9780197860571.002.0005 · 研究领域：Political science、Political economy、History、Environmental ethics、Economy、Law and economics、Law、Sociology

We are drawn to historical learning by virtue of its importance for foreign policy. More than in many domains, historical lessons seem decisive in formulating and selling policies. There is also evidence that once established, lessons tend to endure even when they repeatedly fail. Policymakers benefit from knowledge of history, but can also become its prisoner. They are also at risk because the events on which lessons are based and the process by which they are learned is often politicized. Policymakers can unwittingly be coopted to advance the agenda of others. We began this book as COVID-19 emerged and soon became a pandemic. At the same time, Sino-American relations continued to deteriorate, so badly, that highly placed officials on both sides talk openly of the possibility of a future war. In February 2022, a real war broke out in Europe, a region where most people gave such a possibility a very low probability. As we go to press, the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, with Donald Trump appearing to side with Russia. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas have waged war, and Israel and the US have attacked Iran. The Trump administration is increasingly anti-Europe, upsetting world trade through arbitrary high tariffs, and ignoring many of the accepted lessons of economics. Looming over all of us is climate disaster because the countries responsible for releasing the most carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere lack the political will to reduce their emissions. Prediction...