Development and Internal Validation of a Nutrition-Related Indicator-Based Prediction Model for in-Hospital Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with AECOPD

作者：Qing Tu, Yi Ding, Fangfang Bai, Qian Li, Yun Zhou, Wenjie Sun, Bangzhu Liu, Zhaoyan Wu, Yeshan Li · 发表于：International Journal of COPD · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.2147/copd.s618346 · 研究领域：Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research、Respiratory Support and Mechanisms、Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment

Purpose: To investigate the predictive value of routinely available nutrition-related laboratory indicators for in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and to develop and internally validate a clinically applicable prediction model. Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort study included 2167 patients hospitalized for AECOPD at the Second People’s Hospital of Wuhu between January 1, 2016 and October 21, 2025. Candidate predictors were prespecified based on clinical relevance and previous evidence. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. A prediction model was developed and internally validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curves with bootstrap resampling, the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Among the 2167 patients, 109 (5.0%) died during hospitalization. Multivariable analysis identified five independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: older age (OR = 1.234, 95% CI: 1.077– 1.422), lower hemoglobin (OR = 1.095, 95% CI: 1.036– 1.152), lower albumin (OR = 1.135, 95% CI: 1.083– 1.192), respiratory failure at admission (OR = 6.002, 95% CI: 3.936– 9.234), and a history of lung cancer (OR = 4.430, 95% CI: 1.815– 9.855). The prediction model achieved good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating ch...