Warming and precipitation change alter flowering phenology and coflowering networks in California serpentine grasslands

作者：Andrea N. Nebhut, Jeffrey S. Dukes · 发表于：bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.64898/2026.08.05.743098 · 研究领域：Plant and animal studies、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Species Distribution and Climate Change

Abstract Coflowering, the temporal overlap in flowering among plant species, can influence plant fitness through its effects on heterospecific pollen transfer and competition for pollinators and resources. This temporal overlap is changing as plant species respond differently to climate change. However, difficulties in quantifying and comparing patterns of coflowering across diverse, multispecies communities have limited progress in understanding climate-driven shifts in coflowering. Network-based approaches offer a promising solution to this limitation. Here, we investigate how warming and altered precipitation influence coflowering network structure, flowering phenology, and seed production in 12 annual California serpentine grassland plant species in a mesocosm experiment, using coflowering network analysis and structural equation modeling. Communities consistently grouped into two phenological modules corresponding to early- and late-season annuals. Warming reduced the overall amount of coflowering in the community, driven primarily by weakened and less diverse coflowering among late-season species. Soil moisture moderated these effects: late-season coflowering was strongest under cool–wet conditions and weakest under warm conditions regardless of soil moisture. In contrast, early-season species had a more fixed phenological window, and maintained stable coflowering relationships across climates. Growth form (grass or forb) and origin (native vs. non-native) did not predi...