Data from Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model in US Black Women

作者：Jessica L. Petrick, Nelsy Castro‐Webb, Gary Zirpoli, Kerrie P. Nelson, Julie R. Palmer, Ruth M. Pfeiffer · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1158/1940-6207.c.8630712 · 研究领域：Medicine、Oncology、Internal medicine、Gynecology

<div>Abstract <p>The National Cancer Institute’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (NCI-CCRAT), an absolute risk prediction model, was developed using data from US White men and women. The model’s performance has not been assessed for Black Americans, the US racial/ethnic group with the highest colorectal cancer incidence. We externally validated the NCI-CCRAT using data from 53,324 Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) participants aged 40 to 84 years. We predicted 5-year absolute risks using data from 2001 to 2015 in three 5-year prediction periods: 2001 to 2005, 2006 to 2010, and 2011 to 2015. To assess model performance, we computed calibration (expected over observed colorectal cancer cases, E/O) and discriminatory accuracy [area under the receiver operating curve (AUC)]. During follow-up, 433 BWHS participants developed colorectal cancer. Based on the NCI-CCRAT, 579 colorectal cancer cases were expected [E/O = 1.34; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.22–1.47]. The NCI-CCRAT was well-calibrated in the first 5-year prediction period (2001–2005 E/O = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.94–1.29), but statistically significantly overestimated risk in later periods. We estimated discriminatory accuracy only for the 2001 to 2005 prediction period (151 colorectal cancer cases) and obtained an age-adjusted AUC = 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57–0.66). Associations of vigorous physical activity, aspirin/NSAID use, vegetable intake, and body mass index with colorectal cancer risk were weaker in the BWHS ...