Global economic burden attributable to asthma, 2025–50: a global modelling analysis of 154 countries and territories

作者：Zhong Cao, Xunliang Tong, Zhoutao Zheng, Hexi Sun, Yuheng Luo, Ke Huang, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Till Bärnighausen, David E Bloom, Ting Yang, Chen Wang, Simiao Chen · 发表于：The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/s2213-2600(26)00144-x · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Asthma and respiratory diseases、Global Health Care Issues、Healthcare Systems and Reforms

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a major chronic respiratory disease with substantial health and economic consequences worldwide; however, there is little evidence for the long-term macroeconomic effects of asthma across countries. We aimed to estimate the global economic burden attributable to asthma from 2025 to 2050 across 154 countries and territories. METHODS: We estimated the long-term economic burden of asthma using a health-augmented macroeconomic model covering 154 countries and territories from 2025 to 2050. Projected labour losses were captured through reductions in the workforce due to premature death and reduced labour force participation due to disability. Physical capital accumulation was affected by asthma-related medical spending, which reduces savings and investment, measured as asthma-attributable health expenditure. In the model, this spending reduced disposable income and savings, thereby lowering investment and slowing capital accumulation over time FINDINGS: Between 2025 and 2050, our model predicted that asthma would incur costs of approximately US$863 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 615-1396; 2024 US$), corresponding to an annual gross domestic product (GDP) decline of 0·036% (0·026-0·058). The projected economic burden differed markedly across the 154 countries. The USA bore the largest burden (US$471 billion [371-655]), followed by the UK (US$45 billion [28-84]) and China (US$44 billion [27-81]). Across income groups, high-income countries accounted for...