资金脱实向虚的弹塑性断裂机制——基于三层交易流速的测度与实证 Capital Diversion from Real Economy: Elasto-Plastic Threshold Effect of Debt Circulation Velocity

作者：Wenhui Chen · 发表于：Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5281/zenodo.21629707 · 研究领域：Banking stability, regulation, efficiency、Monetary Policy and Economic Impact、Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

中国宏观经济长期存在一组结构性矛盾:货币供给总量持续扩张,制造业尤其是小微企业的流动性约束并未同步缓解,应收账款回收期居高不下,融资成本下行节奏明显滞后。现有研究多在“实体—金融”二元框架下讨论脱实向虚问题,忽略了债务履约具备法定刚性、优先偿付的特殊属性,难以解释总量宽松与结构性紧缺并存的现象。本文回归费雪交易方程的全口径内涵,将广义交易拆解为实体生产、金融资产交易与债务履约三个层级,构建三层流速分析框架;借鉴结构力学弹塑性变形逻辑,结合企业两期现金流约束模型内生推导实体流动性的非线性断裂阈值。基于2000—2024年中国省级面板数据,综合运用门槛回归、强度双重差分、马尔可夫区制转换、局部投影与工具变量法展开检验。研究发现:样本期内债务交易层流速持续显著高于金融层与实体层,传统单一GDP口径对真实货币流通压力存在系统性低估;债务流速存在约15.4%的临界阈值,突破阈值后对规上工业应收账款回收期的挤压强度呈非线性放大,且塑性断裂区间具备强粘性与低可逆性,总量型货币政策传导效率明显衰减;小微企业对应的断裂阈值更低、受冲击强度更大,弹塑性机制具备全域普适性。本文从流量分层视角拓展了资金脱实向虚的理论分析体系,可为地方债务长效治理与结构性货币政策设计提供量化依据。 A prominent structural contradiction persists in China’s macroeconomy: the aggregate money supply keeps expanding, yet liquidity constraints in the manufacturing sector, especially for small and micro enterprises, have not eased accordingly. The collection period of accounts receivable remains high, and the decline in financing costs lags noticeably. Most existing studies discuss capital diversion from the real economy within a binary “real-financial” framework, ignoring the statutory rigidity and priority repayment attribute of debt performance, and fail to explain the coexistence of aggregate easing and structural shortage. Returning to the full connotation of Fisher’s transaction equation, this paper decomposes aggregate transactions into three tiers: real production, financial asset trading and debt repayment, and constructs a three-tier velocity analytical framework. Drawing on elasto-plastic deformation theory in structural mechanics, we endog...