Declines in European bumblebee habitat suitability attributable to climate change

作者：Bastien De Tandt, Kyla Serres, Rosa Pietroiusti, Diana Erazo, François Massonnet, Denis Michez, Wim Thiery, Guillaume Ghisbain, Simon Dellicour · 发表于：Open MIND · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5281/zenodo.21620753 · 研究领域：Ecology、Geography、Environmental resource management、Environmental science

This archives gathers the input files and scripts related to our study entitled "Declines in European bumblebee habitat suitability attributable to climate change" (De Tandt et al., submitted). R scripts used to conduct the different ecological niche modelling and projections described in that study are all available in Script_ENM_study.r. Climate change is increasingly implicated in the decline of insect pollinator populations, which provide critical ecosystem services. Isolating its contribution from other co-occurring environmental stresses remains challenging yet crucial for informing conservation strategies and mitigating biodiversity losses. Here, we isolate the role of climate change by comparing predictions of areas ecologically suitable for European bumblebee species from 1901 to 2019 under factual simulations to predictions under counterfactual climatic conditions where long-term climatic trends were removed. Climate change reduced community-level ecological suitability across Europe by 5% on average and up to 19% locally, with pronounced declines in southern and central regions. In contrast, in the Alpine and Boreal regions, gains at higher altitudes partially offset losses at lower latitudes and altitudes, resulting in minimal net changes. Our results demonstrate that climate change is reshaping the ecologically suitable areas for these key pollinators and represents a pervasive pressure on European wildlife. R packages used in this study, software requirements, a...