Global, Regional, and National Burden of Malaria and Dengue from 1992 to 2021, with Projections to 2036: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

作者：Yue Wang, Qilan Wen, J S Chen, Yikun Chang, Na Cao, Xin Sun, Yuantao Hao, Wangjian Zhang, Zhicheng Du · 发表于：Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.3390/tropicalmed11070201 · 研究领域：Malaria Research and Control、Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Parasites and Host Interactions

This study aimed to compare the burden of malaria and dengue worldwide and to project future incidence trends. Incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Temporal trends were quantified using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), age–period–cohort analysis was used to assess age, period, and cohort effects, and Bayesian age–period–cohort models were applied to project incidence to 2036. From 1992 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of malaria decreased (EAPC= −0.55%), whereas that of dengue increased (EAPC = 1.83%); the corresponding age-standardized DALY rates showed EAPCs of −1.64% and 1.29%, respectively. Across 21 GBD regions, SDI was inversely correlated with ASIR for malaria (r = −0.848) and dengue (r = −0.521), and with age-standardized DALY rates for malaria (r = −0.849) and dengue (r = −0.497). Malaria burden remained concentrated in low-SDI regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania, whereas dengue burden was highest in middle-SDI regions, especially tropical Latin America. From 2021 to 2036, the global ASIR of malaria was projected to decrease slightly by 1.36% (3485.27 to 3437.72). Whereas that of dengue was projected to increase by 10.58% (752.04 to 831.63). In males, the projected ASIR of malaria and dengue increased by 4.18% (3193.24 to 3326.58) and 9.96% (704.83 to 775.06), respectively. In females, the corresponding increases were 4.87% (3379...