Impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural production and proposed countermeasures

作者：Yaning CHEN, Yanjun SHEN, Ming JIANG · 发表于：Zhongguo Kexueyuan yuankan · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.3724/j.issn.1000-3045.20260109002 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Energy Efficiency in Computing

Climate change is among the most severe global challenges today. It directly impacts agricultural production, which is highly dependent on climatic conditions, imposing multi-dimensional and systemic risks and challenges on China’s agriculture. Drawing on observational data and analysis of the literature, this study systematically examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in China. Over the past half century, China’s annual mean surface temperature has risen significantly at a rate of 0.31℃ per decade, exceeding the contemporaneous global average. This trend has intensified climatic variability and extremes, disrupted the prior balance of agricultural water resources, and led to the frequent and widespread occurrence of rapid drought–flood transitions, alternating cold and warm spells, and similar events. These developments have posed multiple risks for agricultural production, including altered crop phenology and aggravated pest and disease pressures that undermine production stability; asynchrony between water and heat and the normalization of drought, which exacerbate conflicts over water resources; and the frequent occurrence of extreme events, which drives up production costs and operational risks. In response to these challenges, adaptation to climate change must be deeply integrated into the national food security strategy. Systems thinking should be employed to advance proactive adaptation, and efforts should be accelerated to build a climate-s...