Meteorologically Driven Changes in Future Global Air Quality: Physical and Monetized Impacts

作者：Erin E. McDuffie, Lee T. Murray, S Eastham, Melanie Jackson, Marcus C. Sarofim, William Raich, Richard Burnett, Jim Anderton, Henry Roman, James E. Neumann, Simone Tilmes, Kwesi A. Quagraine, Neal Fann · 发表于：Environmental Science & Technology · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1021/acs.est.5c14713 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Climate Change and Health Impacts、COVID-19 impact on air quality

High Resolution Image Download MS PowerPoint Slide Exposure to ambient air pollution, including ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Estimating how this burden may change in the future depends on projecting population growth and age structure as well as understanding how future meteorological changes may impact the production and removal of pollutants from the atmosphere. The net impact of these factors on a global scale has not been well-characterized. Here, we leverage recent meteorology, exposure, and mortality output from general circulation, atmospheric chemistry, and health impact models to isolate how changes in meteorology and populations will impact future global air-pollution-related mortality and the associated monetized impacts by the degree of global temperature change. In contrast to previous studies, we estimate that changes in meteorologically driven air pollution, in the absence of pollutant precursor emission changes, will result in 180 000 fewer deaths annually by 2100 relative to current levels, an annual monetized benefit of $7.3 trillion. Reductions are driven by decreases in PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in populated regions but are substantially offset by global increases in ozone-related mortality. We also highlight striking regional differences in the sign of net pollutant impacts by 2100, with net pollution decreases in the Northern Hemisphere driven by reductions in nitrate aerosol, ...