Association of climate change with the spread of antimicrobial resistance genes in Salmonella: a longitudinal ecological and modelling study

作者：Zhenchao Zhou, Lin Teng, Xin-Yi Geng, Lamei Wang, Xiaoyu Meng, Min Qiao, Ke‐Qing Xiao, Zhe Zhao, Xiao-Liang Ba, Chioma Achi, Hong Chen, Jia-Nan Li, Michael Gillings, Edward Topp, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, William H. Gaze, Yue Qin, Mark A Holmes, Timothy R. Walsh, Min Yue, Yong-Guan Zhu · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101445 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Salmonella and Campylobacter epidemiology、Antibiotic Resistance in Bacteria、Antibiotic Use and Resistance

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) emerges primarily through antibiotic exposure and the resulting selection pressure, but climate change is likely to accelerate the dissemination of AMR, particularly for zoonotic diseases, such as those caused by Salmonella. However, the link between climatic factors and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) carried by Salmonella remains poorly characterised. This longitudinal ecological study aimed to link climate change to ARGs using multiple regression models. METHODS: We analysed a comprehensive dataset of 488 232 Salmonella genomes and multiple potential predictors from 139 countries or regions over the period 1940-2023. Robustness was verified via Tobit and generalised additive models. Climate-related changes of average ARG abundance in Salmonella were quantified through counterfactual scenarios. Future ARG trends were projected to 2100 using integrated Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). FINDINGS: The global average ARG abundance in Salmonella has increased by 38% (0·50 copies per cell) in the time period considered. Multiple regression models revealed that variability in ARGs follows a non-linear quadratic response to temperature and precipitation. Climate change is associated with a 10% (95% CI 5·4-13·3) global rise in the abundance of Salmonella ARGs, with increases observed in 82 (82%) of 100 countries. By 2100, th...