Perspectives: Effect of global change drivers on carbon fluxes and resilience of European forests

作者：Mana Gharun, Charlotte Angove, Mirco Migliavacca, Yu Zhou, Kate Buckeridge, Cristina Branquinho, Alessio Collalti, Line Nybakken, Miglena Zhiyanski, Murat Sargıncı, İsmail Koç, Abdullah Hüseyin Dönmez, Ana López-Ballesteros, Douglas Godbold, Kateřina Macháčová, Claudia Guidi, Gerbrand Koren, Ivika Ostonen, Marili Sell, Emilia Pers‐Kamczyc, Jacek Kamczyc, Toprak Aslan, Catherine Preece, Egor Prikaziuk, Ufuk Özkan, Valentina Vitali, Alena Havrdová, José M. Grünzweig, Enrico Tomelleri, Sami Ullah, Lora Stoeva, Enrica Nestola, Elena Vanguelova, Rossella Guerrieri · 发表于：Forest Ecology and Management · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123844 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems、Forest Ecology and Biodiversity Studies、Forest Management and Policy

European forests play a central role for meeting the EU's climate targets, but the declining carbon sink has left them trailing behind climate goals. Reversing this trend requires a systematic understanding of forest responses to shifting global change drivers, explicitly integrating aboveground and belowground processes. Here, we provide our perspective on the effects of multiple global change drivers on ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes (including both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) and the resilience of these fluxes, based on direct flux observations (e.g., from eddy covariance towers). First, we present changes in several key drivers (warming, drought, atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, winter warming, excess precipitation, late frost), over recent decades, some of which (winter warming, windthrow, excess precipitation, late frost) have received limited attention in forest carbon assessments. Some of these—such as winter warming—are expected to become increasingly frequent in the future. We then explicitly summarize how the four (more-frequently studied) key drivers affect carbon fluxes (i.e., CO2 and CH4 fluxes). The response of the net CO2 sink (i.e., net ecosystem productivity) is presented through its two component processes: gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). When considered individually, global change drivers often produce relatively predictable responses in forest carbon fluxes: warming tends to enhance both GPP and Reco, ele...