Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations

作者：Bin Zhou, Nowell H Phelps, Agnese Galeazzi, Olivia N. O’Driscoll, James E. Bennett, Lakshya Jain, Yse D'Ailhaud De Brisis, Ana Barradas‐Pires, Fulvio Deo, Gretchen A. Stevens, Vasilis Kontis, Christopher J. Paciorek, Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco, Anu Mishra, 范晔峰, Andrea Rodriguez‐Martinez, Vishwa Nath, A. Rayner, Annalise Zouein, Natalie Evans, Jennifer L. Baker, Günther Fink, Maroje Sorić, Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Pascal Bovet, Goodarz Danaei, Kairat Davletov, Shubash Ganapathy, Edward W. Gregg, Nayu Ikeda, André Pascal Kengne, Young‐Ho Khang, K Khunti, Tiina Laatikainen, Avula Laxmaiah, Lee‐Ling Lim, H Y Lin, J Mbanya, J Jaime Miranda, Anja Schienkiewitz, Sylvain Sebert, Namuna Shrestha, Yi Song, Luis Adrián Soto-Mota, Gregor Starc, L L Wang, Novie O. Younger-Coleman, Francesco Zaccardi, Julie Aarestrup, Leandra Abarca-Gómez, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Ziad Abdeen, Shynar Abdrakhmanova, Suhaila Abdul Ghaffar, Hanan F. Abdul Rahim, Zulfiya Abdurahmnova, Niveen M. Abu-Rmeileh, Jamila Abubakar Garba, Benjamín Acosta-Cázares, Ishag Adam, Marzena Adamczyk, Robert J. Adams, Seth Adu-Afarwuah, Wichai Aekplakorn, Tin Afifah, Kaosar Afsana, Shoaib Afzal, Imelda A. Agdeppa, Javad Aghazadeh-Attari, Åsa Ågren, Hassan Aguenaou, Charles Agyemang, Mohamad Hasnan Ahmad, Noor Ani Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Naser Ahmadi, Nastaran Ahmadi, Imran Ahmed, Soheir H. Ahmed, Wolfgang Ahrens, Gulmira Aitmurzaeva, Kamel Ajlouni, Дилором Ахмедова, Nilufar Akhmedova, Nasser Al-Daghri, Sarah F. Al-Hamli, Hazzaa M. Al-Hazzaa, Halima Al-Hinai, Jawad A. Al-Lawati, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Islam K. Al-Shami, Deena Al Asfoor, Huda M. Al Hourani, Nawal M. Al Qaoud, Monira Alarouj, Fadia AlBuhairan, Shahla AlDhukair, M. Aldwairji, Silvia Alexius, Mohamed M. Ali, Mohamed M Ali, Nazirah Alias, Anna V. Alieva, Abdullah Alkandari, Buthaina Alkhatib, Mar Álvarez‐Pedrerol, Eman Aly, DN Amarapurkar, Parisa Amiri, John Amoah, Norbert Amougou, P Amouyel, Atieh Amouzegar, Lars Bo Andersen, Sigmund A. Anderssen, Jonas S. Andersson, Odysseas Androutsos, Malick Anne, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Елена Ануфриева, Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri, Joana Araújo, Inger Ariansen, Carmen Arias López, Tahir Aris, Raphael E. Arku, Nimmathota Arlappa, Enrique G. Artero, Krishna K. Aryal, Thor Aspelund, Félix Assah, Nega Assefa, Batyrbek Assembekov, Maria Cecília F Assunção, Shiu Lun Au Yeung, May Soe Aung, Juha Auvinen, Mária Avdičová, Kishwar Azad, Ana Azevedo, Mohsen Azimi–Nezhad, Fereidoun Azizi, Bontha V. Babu, Flora Bacopoulou, Azli Baharudin, Suhad Bahijri, Borko Bajić, Izet Bajramović, Márta Bakacs, Nagalla Balakrishna, Yulia Balanova, Mohamed Bamoshmoosh, M Banach, José R. 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Bhargava, Hongsheng Bi, Yufang Bi, Daniel Bia, Katia Biasch, Elysée Claude Bika Lele, Mukharram M. Bikbov, Bihungum Bista, Duško Bjelica, A A Bjerregaard, Peter Bjerregaard, Espen Bjertness, Marius B. Bjertness, Cecilia Björkelund, Ieva Blauzde, Moran Blaychfeld Magnazi, Katia V. Bloch, Anneke Blokstra, Simona Bo, Martin Bobak, Lynne M. Boddy, Bernhard O. Boehm, José Boggia, Elena Bogova, Carlos P. Boissonnet, Stig E. Bojesen, Marialaura Bonaccio, Americo Bonanni, Vanina Bongard, Alice Bonilla-Vargas, Matthias Bopp, Elaine Borghi, Herman Borghs, Steve Botomba, Rupert Bourne, Khadichamo Boymatova, Francesca Bracone, Lien Braeckevelt, Lutgart Braeckman, Marjolijn C. E. Bragt, Tasanee Braithwaite, Imperia Brajkovich, Francesco Branca, J Breckenkamp, João Breda, Hermann Brenner, Lizzy M. 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Kadvan, Anthony Kafatos, Maria Kafyra, Mónika Kaj, Eero O. Kajantie, Sree Ramakrishna Kakani, Bernard Kakuhikire, Natia Kakutia, Daniela Kállayová, Zhanna Kalmatayeva, Natasa Kalpourtzi, Ofra Kalter-Leibovici, Yves Kameli, Kodanda R. Kanala, Srinivasan Kannan, Efthymios Kapantais, Anna Kapustina, Eva Karaglani, Line L. Kårhus, Khem B. Karki, Omat Karlsson, Adoubi Kassi Anicet, Philippe B. Katchunga, Marzieh Katibeh, Prasad Katulanda, J. Katz, Peter T. Katzmarzyk, Jussi Kauhanen, Prabhdeep Kaur, Maryam Kavousi, Gyulli M. Kazakbaeva, François F. Kaze, Benson M. Kazembe, Calvin Ke, Youzhi Ke, Ulrich Keil, Lital Keinan‐Boker, Sirkka Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Roya Kelishadi, CC Kelleher, Han C. G. Kemper, Maryam Keramati, M Kersting, Bobby Kgosiemang, Yousef Saleh Khader, Kazem Khalagi, Arsalan Khaledifar, D A V O O D Khalili, Bahareh Kheiri, Motahareh Kheradmand, Irina V. Khorosheva, AlirezaKhosravi Farsani, Ilse M. S. L. Khouw, Saeed Khwaja Mir Islam, Ursula Kiechl-Kohlendorfer, Stefan Kiechl, Japhet Killewo, Hyeon Chang Kim, Jenny M. Kindblom, Heidi Klakk, Suntara Klanarong, Jana Klánová, Magdalena Klimek, Jūratė Klumbienė, Michael Knoflach, Susanne Kobel, Maciej Kochman, B Koirala, Sweta Koirala, Elin Kolle, Sanda M. Kolo, Patrick Kolsteren, J König, Päivikki Koponen, Raija Korpelainen, Paul Korrovits, Magdalena Korzycka, Jelena Kos, Seppo Koskinen, Katsuyasu Kouda, Malik Koussoh Simone, Éva Kovács, Viktória Kovács, Irina Kovalskys, Sudhir Kowlessur, Slawomir Koziel, Jana Kratěnová, Wolfgang Kratzer, Vilma Kriaučionienė, Susi Kriemler, Peter Lund Kristensen, Helena Križan, Maria F. Kroker-Lobos, Steinar Krokstad, Daan Kromhout, Herculina S. Kruger, Ruan Kruger, Łukasz Kryst, Růžena Kubínová, Renata Kučienė, Urho M. Kujala, Enisa Kujundzic, Zbigniew Kułaga, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vaitheeswaran Kulothungan, Richard Kumapley, Ramesh Kumar, Meena Kumari, Marie Kunešová, Yadlapalli S. Kusuma, Vladimir Kutsenko, Kari Kuulasmaa, Catherine Kyobutungi, Quang Dai La, Fatima Zahra Laamırı, Demetre Labadarios, Idoia Labayen, Carl Lachat, Karl J. Lackner, Jouni Lahti, Daphne Lai, Wai Kent Lai, Youcef Laid, Lachmie Lall, Ecosse L. Lamoureux, M Landaeta Jiménez, Edwige Landais, Anne Langsted, Tiina Lankila, V Lanska, Georg Lappas, Bagher Larijani, Mina P. Lateva, Tint Swe Latt, Martino Laurenzi, María Lazo-Porras, Gwenaëlle Le Coroller, Khanh Le Nguyen Bao, Agnès Le Port, Tuyen D. Le, Jeannette Lee, Paul H. Lee, Terho Lehtimäki, Daniel Lemogoum, David A. Leon, Elvynna Leong, Aitana Lertxundi, Nerea Lertxundi, Branimir Leskošek, Justyna Leszczak, Katja B. Leth-Møller, G K C Leung, Esko Levälahti, S. P. Levushkin, Yanping Li, Merike Liivak, Christa L. 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Wilks, Johann Willeit, Karin Willeit, Peter Willeit, Julianne Williams, Tom Wilsgaard, James P. Wirth, Agnieszka Wiśniowska-Szurlej, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Meseret Woldeyohannes, Kathrin Wolf, Roy A. Wong-McClure, Andrew Wong, Emily B. Wong, Jyh Eiin Wong, Mark Woodward, Agnieszka E. Woźniak, Frederick C. Wu, Hon‐Yen Wu, Jianfeng Wu, Li Wu, S L Wu, Justyna Wyszyńska, Haiquan Xu, L XU, Can Can Xue, Nor Azwany Yaacob, Uruwan Yamborisut, Li Yan, Lily D. Yan, W L Yan, Ling Yang, X K Yang, Yang Yang, Nazan Yardım, Chao-Yu Yeh, Martha Yépez García, Panayiotis K. Yiallouros, Agneta Yngve, Chandra Yogal, Moein Yoosefi, Akihiro Yoshihara, Y. Yotov, Qi Sheng You, Yu‐Ling Yu, Yunjiang Yu, Safiah Md Yusof, Ahmad Faudzi Yusoff, Luciana Zaccagni, Vassilis Zafiropulos, Ahmad A. Zainuddin, Farhad Zamani, Sabina Zambon, Antonis Zampelas, Hana Zamrazilová, María Elisa Zapata, Tomasz Zatoński, Ko Ko Zaw, Ayman A. Zayed, T Zdrojewski, Magdalena Żegleń, Kristýna Žejglicová, Girum Zeleke, Tajana Zeljkovic Vrkic, Yi Zeng, Andrea Zentai, B Y Zhang, Luxia Zhang, Zhenyu Zhang, Dong Zhao, M H Zhao, W J Zhao, Yanitsa V Zhecheva, Wei Zheng, Bekbolat Zholdin, M G Zhou, Dan Zhu, Oleg F. Zhukov, Sophia J. Kiechl, Paul Zimmet, Marie Zins, Emanuel Zitt, Yanina Zocalo, Julio Zúñiga Cisneros, Monika Zuziak, Majid Ezzati · 发表于：Nature · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet、Child Nutrition and Water Access、Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology

and lacks a granular and systematic analysis of its dynamics. We used 4,050 population-based studies with measured height and weight data on 232 million participants to assess the worldwide dynamics of obesity from 1980 to 2024. The rise in obesity decelerated in school-aged children and adolescents throughout the 1990s in many high-income countries, and subsequently plateaued in most at age-standardized prevalences spanning 20 percentage points, from 3-4% for girls in Japan, Denmark and France to 23% for boys in the USA. There were indications of a small decline in obesity in children and adolescents in some high-income western countries (for example, Italy, Portugal and France) since the 2000s. Similar trends were seen in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In adults, the rise in obesity slowed down in high-income western countries about a decade after children, followed by a plateau or possibly a small reversal of the rise in some countries (for example, Spain). In most low-income and middle-income countries, the annual absolute change in prevalence has remained stable or increased over time, even though prevalence has surpassed that of high-income countries. These highly varied dynamics suggest that the social, economic and technological trends that influence the availability, affordability and use of different foods may have helped control the rise in obesity in high-income countries, but require policy interventions in low-income and middle-income countries.