Multi-scale surveillance reveals substantial egg-laying winter activity in Aedes albopictus mosquito populations across temperate Europe

作者：Daniele Da Re, Giovanni Marini, Alessandro Albieri, Paola Angelini, Karin Bakran-Lebl, Beniamino Caputo, Marco Carrieri, Maria Di Pasquale, Claudio De Liberato, Sarah Droghei, Irene Del Lesto, Alessandra Franceschini, Chiara Gentile, Peter Hufnag, Guillaume Lacour, Valeria Lencioni, Francesco La Russa, Riccardo Lia, Eleonora Longo, Mateusz Markowicz, Bruno Mathieu, Antoine Mignotte, Bianca Modespacher, Pie Müller, Francesca Paoli, Alessia Ricci, Federico Romiti, Barbara Seebacher, Rodolfo Veronesi, Roberto Rosà, Annapaola Rizzoli · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.32942/x29m2c · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Malaria Research and Control、Viral Infections and Vectors

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a competent vector for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, has expanded rapidly across temperate Europe. European vector surveillance typically operates May to October, assuming winter diapause precludes activity and transmission risk. However, recent field observations suggest sustained egg-laying winter activity in southern European populations, potentially extending arbovirus transmission risk. We aimed to quantify winter ovitrap activity patterns across temperate Europe and assess their implications for mosquito surveillance across temperate Europe. In this multi-scale observational study, we deployed standardised ovitraps from October 2024 to May 2025 across 12 locations spanning 35–48°N (Italy, France, Switzerland, Austria; n=345 trap-weeks), complemented by 14-year longitudinal surveillance (2011–2025) from Emilia-Romagna, northern Italy (n=1999 trap-weeks across 10 municipalities). We used binomial generalised additive models to quantify the effects of photoperiod, temperature, and precipitation on ovitrap positivity while accounting for spatial heterogeneity. We calculated trap effort requirements for reliable winter detection and assessed temporal trends in spring versus autumn activity. Winter ovitrap positivity was common and geographically structured. Photoperiod was the dominant driver (p<0.001), with southern Mediterranean sites maintaining detection probabilities >20% throughout December–January, wh...