The global economic burden of diabetes for 190 countries 2021-50: a macroeconomic modelling study

作者：Jinxi Li, Ruxu Zhang, Ruixi Li, Qihua Song, Yan Gong, C J Zhang, Xiaoxv Yin · 发表于：Nature Communications · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1038/s41467-026-72694-0 · 研究领域：Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology、Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins、Healthcare Systems and Reforms

Diabetes imposes a substantial health burden, yet its macroeconomic consequences remain incompletely quantified. Here we use a health-augmented macroeconomic model to estimate output losses attributable to diabetes across 190 countries and territories during 2021–2050. We project that diabetes could reduce cumulative global output by 5.177 trillion international dollars over this period, with substantial heterogeneity in relative losses as a share of GDP across countries. Country-level burdens vary markedly, reflecting heterogeneity in demographic trends, macroeconomic conditions, diabetes prevalence, health-system capacity and treatment costs. Most projected output loss is attributable to diabetes-related disability rather than premature mortality. In this work, we provide comparable cross-country estimates of the long-run macroeconomic burden of diabetes, informing prioritization of prevention, treatment policies, and related investments. Using a health-augmented macroeconomic model, this study finds that diabetes could reduce output by INT$5.2 trillion across 190 countries (2021–2050), with substantial cross-country heterogeneity in GDP losses.