Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for oral frailty in community-dwelling older adults

作者：Wenjuan Yang, Qin Pan, Qingfang Lin, Liping Yang, Juan He, Junna Wang, Xia Zhang, Daiying Jing, Kangqin Cai, Meng Fang · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2026.1793603 · 研究领域：Dental Health and Care Utilization、Frailty in Older Adults、Oral microbiology and periodontitis research

Objective This study aims to investigate the factors influencing oral frailty among community-dwelling older adults and to develop and validate a risk prediction model. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted between October 2023 and November 2024, enrolling community-dwelling older adults from Zigong City, Sichuan Province, China. Participants were randomly allocated into a training set ( n = 271) and a validation set ( n = 117) in a 7:3 ratio. Variable selection was performed using Lasso regression, followed by multivariate logistic regression to develop a risk prediction model, which was presented as a nomogram. The model’s goodness-of-fit and predictive performance were assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow (H-L) test and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, respectively. Internal validation was further carried out via 1,000 bootstrap resamples. ROC curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves were plotted to comprehensively evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram. Result The prevalence of oral frailty among community-dwelling older adults was 32.5%. Logistic regression analysis identified several independent risk factors for OF (all p < 0.05), including sex, age, education level, number of chronic diseases, smoking status, number of natural teeth, difficulty chewing hard foods, frailty status, and oral health-related self-efficacy. The prediction model demonstrated excellent performance, with an area under the ROC curv...