Adaptation strategies and future concerns for ecological restoration of Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

作者：Bagher Shirmohammadi Chelan, Negar Salehi, Žiga Malek, Arash Malekian, Jeroen Aerts, Martijn J. Booij, S Varamesh, Elnaz Namdari, Peter H. Verburg · 发表于：Environmental Science & Policy · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104374 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Transboundary Water Resource Management、Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity、Plant Ecology and Soil Science

The desiccation of Lake Urmia, Iran, represents a critical environmental crisis driven by water scarcity. In 2010, the "Integrated Management Plan for Lake Urmia Basin" was implemented to restore the lake, primarily by improving agricultural irrigation efficiency from 35% to 60% to reduce water withdrawals by 40%. This study evaluates the hydrological outcomes of this restoration plan between 2010 and 2022, specifically investigating the interplay between policy-driven efficiency gains and concurrent land use changes. We employed a spatial land use model to analyze changes in agricultural patterns. Our findings indicate a significant divergence from the plan’s assumptions. While irrigation efficiency improved, the area of water-intensive orchards expanded by 68.4%, 15.5% more than the 52.9% increase anticipated by the plan. This unplanned agricultural expansion increased regional water demand, offsetting the water savings from efficiency improvements. Consequently, the strategy did not lead to a net increase in inflows to the lake. Furthermore, a rising trend in maximum land surface temperature was observed, indicating an increasingly challenging climate context. The results demonstrate that the restoration strategy was unable to improve the lake’s water balance. The lake of integrated water and land governance allowed for efficiency gains to be effectively canceled out by shifts to more water-intensive cultivation. This study highlights that technological interventions for w...