Humans could become the greatest driver of biosphere net gain in Earth history, but are currently the second fastest driver of biosphere loss

作者：Thomas W Wong Hearing, Mark Williams, Jan Zalasiewicz, H. Balzter, Davor Vidas, John Maltby, Julia Adeney Thomas, Сергей Петровский, Colin N. Waters, M Head, Libby Robin, Elizabeth A. Hadly, James S. Borrell, Colin Summerhayes, Alejandro Cearreta, Anthony Barnosky, Francine McCarthy, JS (Pat) Heslop-Harrison, Reinhold Leinfelder, Sverker Sörlin, Jens Zinke, Michael Wagreich, Moriaki Yasuhara · 发表于：bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.64898/2026.04.10.715592 · 研究领域：Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life、Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution、Climate Change and Geoengineering

Abstract We evaluate episodes of biosphere change throughout Earth history and compare them with contemporary and near-future anthropogenic changes, developing the concept of biosphere disruptors – agents that force global-scale macroevolutionary change. Transient disruptors are geologically short-lived agents (mean 8.0×10 5 years), including massive volcanism and asteroid impacts. Persistent disruptors , including atmospheric and ocean oxygenation and land plant evolution, remain in the Earth System over long timescales (mean 1.3×10 8 years). In the geological record, transient disruptors are associated with temporary but sometimes massive biosphere degradation, whereas persistent disruptors are associated with sustained biosphere enhancement. Most anthropogenic biosphere impacts resemble those of past transient disruptors , globally degrading wild biomass and biodiversity. Humanity is driving the second highest rate of biosphere degradation in Earth history after the Cretaceous-Paleogene asteroid impact. However, humanity is the first disrupting agent capable of reflecting on and potentially transforming its impact on planetary habitability. If this can be achieved, humanity could drive the greatest rate of increase in planetary habitability in Earth history on centennial to millennial timescales.