Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis

作者：Xing Wu, Tatiana Bellagio, Yunru Peng, Lucas Czech, Meixi Lin, Patricia L. M. Lang, Ruth Epstein, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Jake M. Alexander, Carlos Alonso-Blanco, Heidi Lie Andersen, Modesto Berbel, Joy Bergelson, Oliver Bossdorf, Liana T. Burghardt, Mireille Caton-Darby, Robert I. Colautti, Carolin Delker, Panayiotis G. Dimitrakopoulos, Kathleen Donohue, Walter Durka, Gema Escribano-Avila, Steven J. Franks, Felix Fritschi, Alexandros Galanidis, Alfredo Garcia, Ana García-Muñoz, Elena Hamann, Allison Hutt, José M. Iriondo, Thomas E. Juenger, Stephen R. Keller, Karin Koehl, Arthur Korte, Pamela Korte, Alexander Kutschera, Carlos Lara-Romero, Laura Leventhal, Daniel Maag, Arnald Marcer, Martí March-Salas, Juliette de Meaux, Belén Méndez-Vigo, Javier Morente-López, Timothy C. Morton, Zuzana Münzbergová, Anne Muola, Hanna Akiko Nomoto, Meelis Pärtel, F. Xavier Picó, Brandie Quarles-Chidyagwai, Marcel Quint, Niklas Reichelt, Agnieszka Rudak, Johanna Schmitt, Gregor Schmitz, Merav Seifan, Basten L. Snoek, Remco Stam, Marc Stift, John R. Stinchcombe, Mark A. Taylor, Peter Tiffin, I. Till-Bottraud, Anna Traveset, Jean-Gabriel Valay, Martijn van Zanten, Vigdis Vandvik, Cyrille Violle, Detlef Weigel, Maciej Wódkiewicz, François Vasseur, J. F. Scheepens, Moises Exposito-Alonso · 发表于：Science · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1126/science.adz0777 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Genetic diversity and population structure、Evolution and Genetic Dynamics、Species Distribution and Climate Change

Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation, including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity forecasting.