Quantifying the impact of climate drivers on groundwater dynamics in diverse environmental settings and heterogeneous time series data – a method comparison

作者：Annemarie Bäthge, Robert Reinecke · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7389 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry、Cryospheric studies and observations

While critical to humans and ecosystems, groundwater accessibility is threatened by climate change, which alters groundwater recharge and can lead to water table decline. However, quantifying groundwater response to climatic changes remains highly uncertain. Modeling efforts are constrained by the oversimplification of processes, a lack of data for calibration and validation, and an uncertainty regarding processes and state variables. Improving our understanding of hydrological systems requires better quantification of the relationship between individual system inputs (climate signals) and outputs (groundwater table). However, this task is challenging, as groundwater is an integral part of the Earth system, where complex feedback mechanisms and multiple interacting factors and drivers (confounders) complicate the investigation of single processes. Topography, for example, is a core driver of groundwater flow and determines water table depth as well as where recharge and discharge areas develop. Geological properties like permeability and porosity strongly influence groundwater flow, response time, and storage capacity. Infiltration from surface waters is often the main source of groundwater recharge in drylands and may blur the direct influence of precipitation. Consequently, the nature and strength of the climate-groundwater connection are likely to vary across different environmental contexts. In particular, the subsurface's damping effect complicates a climate-groundwater ...