Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model

作者：Stephen Kaptoge, Spencer Keene, Tessa H Reitsma, Wen Shi, Jennifer S. Lees, Laura Loo, Mari Nordbø Gynnild, Chimweta Ian Chilala, Scott C. Ritchie, Sarah Spackman, Gianluigi Saverese, Salil Deo, Xavier Rossello, Bin Zhou, Barry R. Davis, Elizabeth L. M. Barr, JARETT BERRY, Hermann Brenner, Edoardo Casiglia, Kevin Damman, Lori B. Daniels, James A. de Lemos, Chiara Donfrancesco, M. Dörr, James S. Floyd, Richard Gillum, Dominique Hange, J Wouter Jukema, Stefan Kiechl, Jorge R. Kizer, A. Kucharska-Newton, Daniel Levy, Dianna J Magliano, Kunihiro Matsushita, Kirsten Mehlig, Peter M Nilsson, Dorothea Nitsch, Børge G. Nordestgaard, Michael Hecht Olsen, Luigi Palmieri, Bruce M Psaty, Hee-Choon Shin, Lara M. Simpson, Sundstrom Jb, Jozine M ter Maaten, Valérie Tikhonoff, Stella Trompet, A. Tybjærg-Hansen, Henry Völzke, Kristian Wachtell, Peter Willeit, Ruijie Xie, Shuyue Yang, Gregory Y. H. Lip, Håvard Bergesen Dalen, Juan J Carrero, M. Max Ezzati, Maryam Kavousi, John William McEvoy, M. Piepoli, K. Khunti, Stefan Koudstaal, J. Danesh, Angela Wood, Frank L J Visseren, Nathalie Conrad, Taavi Tillmann, Łukasz Kuźma, Charlotte Andersson, Steven H J Hageman, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Lisa Pennells · 发表于：European Heart Journal · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1093/eurheartj/ehag154 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors、Heart Failure Treatment and Management、Heart rate and cardiovascular health

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) presents a significant and growing public health challenge. The aim of this study was to develop and validate SCORE2-HF, a model for HF risk estimation in European adults aged over 40-years without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using data from 25 prospective cohorts (14 countries, 611 778 individuals, 21 818 incident HF events) the sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-HF models were derived including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, body mass-index (BMI), estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), including age at diagnosis and glycated haemoglobin. Using Europe-wide statistics from the World Health Organization and linked health records from five countries (>36 million individuals, 515 466 incident HF events) models were recalibrated to contemporary 10-year and 30-year HF incidence in four European risk regions. SCORE2-HF was validated using data from three further cohorts (three countries; 1 336 824 participants; 36 841 incident HF-events). RESULTS: In the three external validation cohorts, C-indices (95% confidence interval) were 0.827 (0.824-0.829), 0.839 (0.827-0.850) and 0.874 (0.863-0.884). SCORE2-HF risks varied importantly by individual's risk factors, and risk region. For example, in the low-risk region, the average 10-year risk for 70-year-old individuals with zero versus four adverse risk factors (smoking, T2DM, hypertension and BMI ...